If you had the winner last week in any one and done contests, I’d love to shake your hand. Never easy, but even tougher when we get a surprise winner at a major.
The PGA Championship is in the books with Aaron Rai grabbing his first major at Aronimink, and the Tour heads to McKinney for the third leg of the Texas Swing. The CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch is normally a sleepy spot on the calendar, but this week has a real wrinkle. The course just underwent a $25 million renovation and reopened in December, and nobody in the field has played it competitively yet.
Purse size this week: small. The purse is $10.3 million, with the winner taking home $1.854 million and 500 FedExCup points.
That, plus the fact that Scottie Scheffler is the +150 favorite as the defending champion in his hometown, makes for an interesting one-and-done puzzle.
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Why This Week Plays Differently
Craig Ranch is now a par 71 at 7,385 yards. The fairways were rebuilt with Stadium Zoysia, the greens are now 777 Bentgrass, and the closing par-5 18th was converted into a 480-yard par 4. The 4th hole has a new biarritz green, and the par-5 5th now stretches 624 yards with a massive waste bunker dividing the landing zones.
The fairways were also pinched to 25 to 28 yards wide, which is closer to a Quail Hollow setup than the old Craig Ranch most players remember. Five years of past course history exists, but treat it with skepticism. The greens were not bentgrass before.
Some data worth looking into this week:
Strokes Gained Approach
This was the cleanest predictor here before the renovation, and it still should be. The course (all courses) rewards iron play above all else, and proximity from the 125 to 175-yard range is where most birdies happen at Craig Ranch. To score (and you need to score lots), you’ll need to throw darts. I looked at
Bentgrass Putting
The most significant change. The old surface is gone, and 777 Bentgrass rewards speed control and precision. Bentgrass putting history over the last 12 to 18 months is the move, not Craig Ranch-specific putting numbers.
Bogey Avoidance
The renovation added real card-wreckers. Hell’s Full Acre on the 5th, the biarritz 4th, and the new tighter fairways all punish a sloppy stretch in a way the old Craig Ranch never did. Bogey avoidance numbers from the last six months give a cleaner read on who handles tightened-up venues without giving strokes back. Scoring will be low, and to keep up, golfers will have to avoid big numbers to go with the gobs of birdies. So, I looked at Bogey Avoidance but only at easy scoring courses.
One and Done Targets
Scheffler at +150 is one of the wildest prices we have seen all year, and it’s justified. But it’s a small purse, and using him here kind of feels like a waste. Plus if you really want to use him at a “gimme” and aren’t worried about not cashing in on a big check, he’s likely to be an even bigger favorite at the 3M
The value is likely in that next tier of golfers. Finding someone with a high floor that can compete in a birdie fest/putting contests. As we said on the show this week, I am a bit worried about guys who have struggled with the short game lately. It may be a place where they can get back on their feet on the greens, but counting on it is tough.
The Short List
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