Each week, I share the top 20 players in our model’s projections based on win percentage. I also include reactions to the initial results and context as to why certain players landed higher or lower than the market. Here are the results for this week’s Mexico Open:
- Is it finally Aaron Wise week? The model certainly thinks so! In a rather weak field, our projections aggressively have Aaron Wise as the best play for this week. Over his last 36 rounds, Wise ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained total, off the tee, and tee to green, all of which are key components of our model.
- Though he is excelling in a couple of categories, the model is discounting Gary Woodland because of his struggles off-the-tee. Over the last two months of play, Woodland ranks 51st in SG:OTT among the players in the field this week.
- There are several players this week – David Lingmerth, Camilo Villegas, Hank Lebioda – that have jumped into the top 20 because of the weak field, suggesting a lot of potential variance in the results. These players, however, each have one area in which they’ve played above-average recently.
Next week we will be debuting the first overhaul to our projections with a revision to our model so stay tuned for that!
Featured Image: Getty Images: Gregory Shamus