The second major of the season heads to Aronimink, and the one and done calculus shifts hard from the past two weeks. Scottie Scheffler is back in the field as the defending champion. The field bloats to 156. The cut returns after 36 holes. The purse? Not announced, but should be somewhere in the $20 million range.
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Why This Week Plays Differently
Aronimink is a Donald Ross design that Gil Hanse restored, and it last hosted PGA Tour golf at the 2018 BMW Championship (Keegan Bradley beat Justin Rose in a playoff). The fairways are pinched down to roughly 32 yards at the landing zones, the rough is grown to 3.5 to 4 inches, and the greens are an average 8,200 square feet with stimp readings of 12.5 to 13.
Some data worth looking into this week:
Approach Play
This is the headline stat for the week. Strokes Gained: Approach on long, demanding courses over the past six months is the cleanest separator. I pulled six months of approach data and sorted by tough fields.
Wedge Proximity
Plenty of scoring opportunities from short range on the front nine that may help separate the wheat from the chaff here. The players at the top of this list also tend to handle Donald Ross courses historically. Last six months, sorted by overall proximity from 100-150.
Comp Course History
With no recent course history available for most of the field, the Hanse-restored Donald Ross profile points us toward similar venues. Oak Hill, Southern Hills, East Lake, and Philadelphia Cricket Club’s Wissahickon are the cleanest comps. Pulling out who handles these tracks well is the move. I loaded up the comp courses in the Rabbit Hole and looked at SG: TOT over the past 18 months.
One and Done Targets
Major math is different from a signature event. You want a name that fits the course, can survive the cut, and has a real path to lifting the trophy on Sunday. That tends to thin the list fast.
We’re also getting to the part of the season where your standings start to drive decisions. Also, what’s left in your bag for the stretch run? It’s boring, but the top three names are all great plays at any spot where the purse is this big. If you do need to get weird, there are some viable options though!
The Short List
Collin Morikawa: He’s hurt! Maybe that keeps his ownership down and let’s you sneak out a low-owned T10?
Sepp Straka: Won at Philly Cricket last year and should have a fairly high floor at a course like this.
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