We typically see an event at the Quail Hollow Club every year. Now, sometimes that’s the former title sponsored Wells Fargo Championship, and other times, like last year, it’s the PGA Championship. Back in 2022, it was the Presidents Cup. This can get tricky to follow, but for now, we’re back at Quail Hollow for the 2026 Truist Championship after the 2025 Truist was held at Philly Cricket Club.
So your defending Truist champion is Sepp Straka, and your most recent Quail Hollow winner is Scottie Scheffler, who won last year’s PGA Championship. Got it? I’m dizzy.
Scottie is not in this year’s Truist field, opting out of the event because he typically likes to rest the week before a major. Back in this week’s field are the five golfers who sat out last week’s Signature Event at Doral, including Rory McIlroy, who’s making his first start since winning the Masters last month.
The course is a par-71 layout that extends to 7,600 yards from the back tees. Using our course stats page, you’ll see the field has used driver off the tee 85.5% of the time over the last five tournaments at Quail Hollow, which is nearly 20% higher than the average PGA Tour event (67.7%). The 2025 PGA Championship data showed more of the same because they didn’t make many changes to the course. They simply made the rough slightly more penal and firmed up the greens even more than normal.
The distance requirements at Quail Hollow extend beyond the tee box. During the same timeframe, the average approach distance at this course is 183.1 yards, which is 16.8 yards longer than the Tour average of 167.3 yards. In an average Tour event, 47.3% of second shots come from 175 yards or more; at Quail Hollow, the five-year average is 60.6%.
While putting can be the most variable of all the strokes gained metrics week in and week out, it has consistently been a critical factor for success at Quail Hollow Club. Over the past five iterations, Quail Hollow ranks as the sixth-toughest course on the Tour for gaining strokes through putting. Longer putts will be particularly challenging here, as it is the second toughest course for putts longer than 15 feet. Additionally, the course has a high three-putt rate of 3.95%, compared to the PGA Tour average of 2.84%. These Poa Trivialis greens will be firm and fast, providing a significant test for the players this week.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Quail Hollow course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total (Long Courses + Difficult Scoring Conditions)
- Recent Form
- Carry Distance
- 201+ Scoring Opps i15%
- GIR% (Long Course + GIR% Difficult)
- Apex Height
- SG: Putting (Difficult to gain strokes putting)
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.
For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events. It prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Truist Championship Outright Betting Picks
Cameron Young (10/1, BetRivers; +950, FD)
This is a fairly straightforward event to handicap. The top of the board is loaded with golfers who are exceptional course fits, are playing incredibly well, and, for the most part, have noteworthy course history at Quail Hollow Club.
If I’m not backing the runaway favorite according to my model, then what am I doing?
The Rabbit Hole ‘scores’ your model on a 1 to 100 scale, which is a feature that I love because it shows you the delta between golfers rather than just the rank. Sure, Cameron Young is first, but Rory and Xander are second and third. My model doesn’t have it that close. The gap between Cam and Rory is the same as that between Rory and #13 Ben Griffin.
From my Rabbit Hole model:
Now, one hand washes the other here when modeling. Of course, Young’s strong recent play is going to help him model well, but you know who else is playing well? Matt Fitzpatrick, and he’s 9th in the model. Rory and Xander are playing well, too. My point is that the triggers that tilt in Cameron Young‘s favor also favor others at or near the top of the board, and he’s still statistically separating from them all.
Cameron Young won going away last week, but he genuinely could’ve posted a 21 or 22-under to double up most of the field if he did anything on the Par 5s. In fact, Young’s 25% birdie or better rate on Doral’s Par 5s was the worst rate in the field last week. For any regression work done to capture Young’s variance on the greens last week, the positive regression I’m expecting on the Par 5s essentially neutralizes it. Quail Hollow demands distance, strong long iron play, and elite putting, and Cameron Young has it in spades.
I’ve mentioned this before, but we have to be willing to adjust to new information. Heading into last year’s Truist Championship, Cameron Young was 150th in Data Golf’s rankings. He had to grind “Golf’s Longest Day” to play in last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont, winning a five-man playoff in Columbus, Ohio, to qualify. But he’s made sizable changes, and they’ve all been impactful.
First, Young landed former Demon Deacon teammate Kyle Sterbinsky on the bag in May of 2025. Sterbinsky is a stick in his own right, and apparently a world-class greens reader. Sterbinsky has also helped Young between the ears, encouraging him to “be kinder to himself” during the round. Young also went back to playing a draw more frequently, and we’ve seen his approach play spike. He also made an equipment change, pivoting to a less spiny Titleist Pro V1 double dot prototype, something that allows him to hit his draw more freely without worrying about the potentially excessive hook spin that can come from a draw swing path.
This is a new golfer in a lot of ways, and I’m treating him as such. He’s without a doubt a top-five golfer on the planet right now, and his odds reflect that. Yes, this price is tough to stomach, but only if you’re hung up on old data points.
With just one outright pick on the card this week, I want to share a few other looks that I like, including my pick to win in Myrtle Beach.
Truist Championship Finishing Position Bets
Xander Schauffele – Top 10 (Including Ties), +105
He’s very live to win, and has the best course history of anyone here, gaining an average of 2.75 strokes per round in his past 16 Quail Hollow rounds. He rolls out of bed and finishes inside the top ten.
Si Woo Kim – Top 20, -110
You probably know that Si Woo Kim is playing well this season, but he’s been even better than you think. Si Woo ranks third in this field in SG: T2G this season (1.52). His second-shot proximity is on another level right now.
Kurt Kitayama – Top 20 (Including Ties), +110
Kurt Kitayama has finished inside the top 20 in four straight Signature Event starts, including back-to-back top 10 finishes at Harbour Town (T8) and Doral (T9) the past two times out. I’m not sure he has the juice to win this one, but his game is well-suited for Quail Hollow.
Taylor Pendrith – Top 30 (Including Ties), +100
Taylor Pendrith is incredibly streaky, and his first and second round ball-striking numbers at Doral caught my attention. He’s also finished T10 here in 2024 and T5 at last year’s PGA Championship. Pendy has the distance and putting chops required to compete this week, and we barely need him to do that.
Myrtle Beach Classic
Outright Winner – Adrien Dumont de Chassart, 45/1
My Dunes Golf and Beach Club handicap leans heavily on recent form with a touch of distance and birdie-making. Over the past 20 rounds, ADDC leads the field in SG: Total and trails only Brooks Koepka, the event favorite, in SG: T2G. Dumont de Chassart is a young golfer with a big-time pedigree, and the exact type of golfer I like to target in these smaller-field alt events.
