2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Bets, Weather, DFS Notes | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational CHEATSHEET

ARNOLD PALMER INV.

PUERTO RICO

LIV HONG KONG

API FIRST ROUND LEADER

PRO FIRST ROUND LEADER

SUBSCRIBE TO THE FREE MAYO MEDIA NEWSLETTER FOR MORE GOLF CONTENT

Arnold Palmer Invitational PICKS

There are a lot of bets in play this week (I mean, come on, there are three decent events to bet), but it’s mostly long shots, so the overall spend isn’t quite the load it may appear to be. But coming off my most winning week in almost two years, I’m feeling charitable to the sports books. If you’re looking for the 3 Place EW market, it’s an offering from Bet365. Don’t think I didn’t play all the outright winners together as 2 and 3 way parlays either. Because of course I did. Let’s have some fun.

Matt Fitzpatrick — Fitz’s driving and irons are at an all-time peak. He’s never been on a better ball-striking run in his career. The problem is, it perfectly coincided with an awful putting stretch. It’s not so much that he’s been bad all the time in 2026; it’s just when it has gone wrong, it’s gone really wrong. In his past 13 rounds, Fitzpatrick has lost strokes putting to the field eight times. Not great, also not the worst. Should be manageable, right? NOPE. He’s lost more than a stroke in five of the past six rounds when he’s gone negative, topped off by dropping a laughable -5.75 SG: PUTT over the week at Riviera. Maybe there is something broken with his putting stroke. Or maybe it’s a small sample size or a struggle with Poa Annua. Regardless, I’m betting on a return to regular levels on the greens at Bay Hill. An event Fitzpatrick has played each of the past 10 years and never finished in the negative on these fast, Bermuda greens.

In Canada, outside of Ontario???? Get MATT FITZPATRICK BOOST TO WIN AT COOLBET

Ludvig Aberg — While justified based on recent performance, seeing Aberg behind some of the names in this field is pretty jarring. Yet, it’s easy to sell after seeing his performance in the final three rounds at Riviera. All the early-season issues seemed to completely evaporate after a poor first round. Ludvig’s skill completely fits the skill profile for Bay Hill; he simply needs to deploy them all four rounds.

Pierceson Coody — Maybe too much too soon at too high profile of an event for Coody to get his breakthrough, but I would have said the same about Jacob Bridgeman two weeks ago. So here we are. Coody’s consistently great driving (1st in the field in SG: OTT past six months) keeps him lurking around these leaderboards. And now he’s actually hitting his irons consistently well. Prior to this year, Coody would always drive it great, run super hot or super cold with the putter, but rarely beat the field on his approach play. Yet, since the Sanderson Farms in October, he’s now gained on approach in nine of 10 starts, including two of the longer courses he’s played this year at Torrey Pines and Riviera.

Nicolai Hojgaard — No one from this next tier of players in the field is playing as well as Nicolai in 2026. He’s notched three Top 6 finishes in his past four starts between PGA and DPWT and has showcased the type of GO LOW ability that has staged many a final round comebacks at Bay Hill over the years. And, unlike most in this range, it’s doubtful Hojgaard feels the pressure of the big stars around himself if he finds a late tee time. At age 24, the Dane already has a DP World Tour Championship, a Ryder Cup Win, a Top 10 at the Olympics, along with a litany of other close calls. Just don’t ask him to make too many 5-footers for par. Those go in with less frequency for Nicolai than his 40-footers.

Sepp Straka — I may be starting to have a Straka problem. Hopefully it’s actually a Straka solution! I’m not entirely sure what happened to him at Riviera on the weekend, but previous to those two rounds, he was experiencing an elite ball-striking season. Quite similar to a year ago, when he was striking the ball excellently before the final event on the West Coast, where he got cut in a Signature Event, only to rattle off a T11/T5/T14 run through Florida.

Alex Noren — It’s been a mixed bag for Noren in 2026 after going nuclear in Europe after the PGA regular season ended. There have been a few little things pointing up, though. His results have improved in each start, despite the field strength getting stronger each time. Additionally, he’s spiked with his irons three times in his past seven rounds, gaining at least one stroke on the field on approach. The short game remains solid, and his proximity to the rough from 150+ yards is the best in the field. If Noren can clean up the driver, he can contend if conditions play tough.

PUERTO RICO

Michael Brennan — Brennan’s driver may be the best weapon on TOUR. Off the Tee play is the most repeatable metric we look at, and there’s no one better or more consistent than Brennan. That’s a wild sentence to type, but it’s just facts. At +1.08 SG: OTT, he’s the only player averaging over a stroke per round with the driver. For reference, Scottie is 2nd at +0.93 per round. You want numbers? Sure. He’s first in driving distance (312 yards) while hitting 68% of fairways. That’s about the same as known accuracy mavens JT Poston, Russell Henley, and Collin Morikawa. So, Brennan is basically Henley but 30 yards longer per drive. That’s a scary prospect. The issue is that the rest of his game is pretty middling. Still, his irons are good enough to generate easy birdie opportunities, so he just needs a random good putting week to win. In nine PGA starts, he’s gained with the putter just once. He won that event in Utah. It’s kind of akin to very early Cameron Champ, where every time he gained putting, he contended and ended up winning three times. At any course where the driver plays, Brennan needs to be a bet.

In Canada, outside of Ontario???? Get Michael Brennan BOOST TO WIN AT COOLBET

David Ford — I liked him last week, so why wouldn’t I go back in a weaker field after he continued his run of elite ball striking? You’d think this is the result of the three consecutive hole outs Thursday at COG, but his approach numbers were equally as good, or better, over the weekend. Of all players in the PRO field, he’s the only one inside the Top 5 in both driving and irons.

Last year, I hit Karl Villips after he flashed a bunch of spike approach results at COG the week before, so I’m rolling out a similar strategy again this year. Despite missing the cut at PGA National, both Blanchet and Riley gained over +1.4 SG: APP/round. That’s the most of any player in the field this week, outside of Chad Ramey, who is one-third the odds of the other two. Sudershan is more in the Brennan vein. He’s gained with his driver in almost 80% of rounds in his young career, but Old Yella has been better with his irons and putter. Stanger had two spike rounds with his driver and his irons at COG, and was T3 at this venue a year ago. And Bauchou? Well, I just like him.

Stat Rankings And Customizable Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

LIV HONG KONG

Ancer, Burmester, Casey — Hong Kong Golf Club rewards a lot of players who fit the “Enough distance, but great accuracy” type. Prime Francesco Molinari would have been great here. (After writing that, I went back and looked and found he lost in a playoff at HKGL in 2008 and followed it up with a T3 the next year.) Ancer beat Casey in a playoff in 2024, while the Burmester Mester lady was runner-up a year ago and fresh off a cracking first two rounds in South Africa last week before stalling out on the weekend.

Wade Ormsby — So, two things on The Ace of Wades. I originally bet him at 150 with 3 Places at Bet365, then DK was offering 1350/1 on him. I figured it was an error, but why not take the shot? That number was available most of Monday before getting slashed to 500/1, then to 400/1, etc. So now I have both bets. Ormsby has won twice at this course in his career and was T4 as recently as 2024. And it’s not like he’s been as terrible as his odds would make you think. He was T6 in his last start in New Zealand on the Asian Tour and has three Top 25s in his past five starts. Plus, one of my bigger paydays of 2025 was a long shot at this event a year ago when Phil paid off his Top 5 each way at 150/1. Sometimes guys are mispriced at a weird course.

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational HOT LINKS

Arnold Palmer Invitational Weather

The weather is looking relatively benign, for Bay Hill standards at least. Since we’re in Florida, expect passing showers likely every day, but nothing is anticipated to stop play from this forecast. As Keith Stewart told us on the Wednesday show, shared from his experience as a club pro across the lake at Isleworth G&CC, winds tend to appear from nowhere, especially later in the day. So keep on top of the forecast heading into each day to see if wind magically appears. This has happened a few times in the past decade and has led to some easy betting wins since some books will make their lines before realizing the weather has shifted.

Windtower: Orlando Executive Airport

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational DRAFTKINGS

This is a fascinating week for DraftKings. Small field, but with a cut, and the Scottie decision is becoming more pressing. Because of his recent play and non-adjusted price, we may have a situation where Scheffler starts slipping down the ownership board. Not to unowned levels, but simply to get into the pack with the other most popular plays. I’d anticipate him to be higher owned in the larger field GPPs than in Single Entries.

Still, the biggest issue I have with playing Scheffler is who you are pairing him with. On Tuesday’s show (Off the Top of the show too!), Blickle broke down how to think about the total ownership of your lineup in these situations. From the $7000, it’s looking very much like Nicolai Hojgaard and Sepp Straka are the chalk of the range, and they just happen to match up perfectly, salary-wise, with Scheffler lineups. Meaning: Expect a lot of Scottie/Hojgaard/Straka starts, which leaves you with $7,100 for the final three players. The next two most likely clicks are probably Ryan Gerard and Keith Mitchell, which will lead to J.J. Spaun, since he fits the remaining amount of money. If I just guessed your lineup, you may want to check out what Blickle had to say on lineup construction.

For the Non-Scottie portion, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, and Collin Morikawa are leading up top. Jake Knapp and Chris Gotterup in the 8Ks, with Pierceson Coody joining the Hojgaard, Straka, and Gerard in the 7Ks. The good news: no one is currently projected to have more than 25% ownership on this slate. The only two I can see getting there would be Scheffler or Fitzpatrick.

For the $6,000 range, here’s who I used…

Stat Rankings And Customizable Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

ICYMI Changes to Underdog Payouts (THEY WENT UP!)

The new Underdog Pick’em payouts might not look like some massive, earth-shattering change at first glance, but they certainly matter. Bumping the two pick entry from 3x to 3.5x and the three pick entry from 6x to 6.5x is significant when you run the math. Previously, you needed to hit around 58 percent per leg on a two-pick just to make it worthwhile. Now you’re sitting closer to 53.5 percent. To put that another way, if we were looking at this like by the odds you see at a sportsbook (In the USA, at least) it’s the difference between -115 to -138.

That gap is huge over time. It fundamentally shifts what’s actually profitable. Because of this, the optimal strategy changes. Before, it was mostly four-pick and six-pick flex entries because the two-pick just weren’t as strong mathematically. Now? Two-pick entries are very much in play. You can mix them in aggressively because the edge requirement isn’t as steep. The math is simply more forgiving, and in this game, not losing all your money winning, that’s everything.

Now, the best way to win on Underdog hasn’t changed. In fact, it’s the same anywhere you make picks. Take advantage of the bonuses. Signing up at Underdog gets you a deposit bonus of up to $1000, and you’ll get $75 instantly when you play a $5 Pick’em entry.

Use code “MAYO” at Underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000

When it comes to golf specifically, though, you still need to be more careful, and things like NFL/NBA/etc where there are more conventional props. You must pick your spots. Blindly firing at every slate isn’t the move. Fading bad play tends to work better than blindly betting on guys to smash. And correlation is always lurking. If everyone expects easy scoring and just piles into lower props, you can end up in a correlated mess that kills your multiplier.

The payout tweak is a real deal improvement. The drop in required win rate is significant, and it makes two-picks much more viable than they used to be. The math got better, and when the math gets better, the strategy has to adjust with it.