I’m honestly not going to get too deep into the weeds on this one. It’s a small-field for big money with all of the best players on the PGA involved. I don’t think there’s really cause to look outside a half dozen names or so.
Next week is even bigger money, so maybe the real stretegy is deciding who you’re NOT using so that they are available for the Players or a future major. Either way, we’ll still look at some stats today, just because it’s fun and will again likely prove that we shouldn’t get too cute here.
Placements
With the size and strength of the field, I did add a filter, just looking at the past 18 months of “very strong fields”. This is essentially majors, signature events, and the playoffs. The cream usually rises to the top, even more so in these big-dollar stops. (sorted by SG:TOT)
Long Irons
If we do want to look beyond the two obvious names, there does need to be something to differentiate them from the “best of the rest”, and long irons might be one of the first places to look. Obviously, Ludvig isn’t playing his best right now, but over the past 12 months, we all know what his ceiling is.
Total Driving
Another decent metric for the week ahead is Total Driving, a measure of both distance and accuracy. Since the rough is so penal here, but the course is plenty long, a golfer with both skills off the tee can be quite dangerous here. Last 12 months ranked by Total Driving with a minimum round threshold of 16.
Bermuda Putting
Finally, if you need to break a tie, I suppose you could use putting, or even 3-putt avoidance here. I sorted to look at the past two years of data only on Bermuda greens. Obviously the guy with the alliterative moniker was at the top, but a couple of top names have also appeared in this top 10.
Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Suggestions
It’s your plan, and you should have some idea of where you’re going with the majors, but you can’t take ’em with you and will have to deploy the Rory and Scottie cards at some point. They both have some warts right now, but obviously line up well with the skills needed here and can certainly win a big event. There is next week to think about with the bigger purse, but as I alluded to a couple weeks back, I’m just going to list Mr. Scheffler as a suggestion everytime the purse hits 20 million and he’s on the list of entrants.
The Shortlist
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
If you are saving them:
Tommy Fleetwood
Matt Fitzpatrick.
Best of luck this week!