With a handful of early withdrawals and the calendar placing this between a couple of bigger events, this week has turned into a bit of a challenge. Just a $9.2 million purse with roughly $1.65 million to the winner means that it isn’t as vital as the top-tier events, but still gives you a chance to move up the leaderboard, considering how the field tends to play these.
Every pool is different, and in a much larger pool of players, you’d certainly want to approach this differently than in a small contest, but either way, I think it’s a great opportunity to get pretty unique with your pick and make a move. For more on the course, be sure to check out Ron’s preview.
Cutmakers
Now that we have a field that doesn’t just have a dozen guys who never miss the cut, we can actually sort by made cuts instead of having to see which of the elite is better at getting into the top 10. Plenty of stong numbers in that column as well, but only one in the top 11 here with win equity in the past 12 months: your chalk, Mr Gerard.
Bogey Avoidance
With all the water this week, and the opportunities for blow-up holes, I’m looking at a brand new addition to the Rabbit Hole: Double Bogey+ Avoidance. Even after sorting out some smaller sample sizes by reuqiring a minimum number of rounds, we have a stand out king of playing it safe in Takumi Kanaya.
Approach
Every week, every course, it’s approach. A million ways to look at it, and I don’t know if there’s a yardage range that really sticks out, as a ton of 2nd shots are in the “middle irons” area. With the overseeding and changes, this has become a much easier course, so I put in a filter to only look at rounds where GIR% was considered easy, and sorted by overall SG: APP to see who was able to take advantage.
Staying Dry
Maybe a little repetitive of the double bogey stuff, but I did want to look at some stats while putting the “high water danger” filter in place as well. I went with a bigger sample here to capture more rounds (2 years), and just sorted by SG: TOT. This includes rounds from previous stops here, the Players, the 3M, and more.
Cognizant Classic One and Done Picks
The choice here is play it safe or find someone unique, and I think that hinges entirely on the size of your contest. In a smaller pool (a work league or a smaller group), it’s likely better to just ride the chalk and not get too risky. In a bigger pool with a top-heavy payout structure, you’ll need to get a bit more weird with it and try to find a diamond in the rough a few times per year, especially on weeks like this.
Shortlist
Using Lowry or Gerard here is the chalk. Again, perfectly fine if you are just wanting to ride with the majority in a smaller/chalky pool.
But, it you need some names to get weird with:
Max McGreevy
Keith Mitchell
Johnny Keefer
Haotong Li
Seamus Power