2026 Pebble Beach Cheatsheet: Bets, Picks, Weather, DraftKings Notes

2026 Pebble Beach Bets

FULL COURSE & STATS BREAKDOWN: 2026 Pebble Beach Picks, Rankings, Stats, Course Preview

2026 Pebble Beach Picks

I don’t feel super comfortable at the top of the board this week, so I’m investing my money on longer shots with the additional Top 5/8 each-way wagers and hoping to squeeze two of them on the leaderboard come Sunday. If I can get two of them up there, there’s a chance they pay off the whole outright with it. But with the weekend weather potentially chaotic, I want to keep some money on hand to fire if the right situation arises.

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Russell Henley — While it may appear as if the bloom is off the rose with the calendar switch, Henley’s actually well above his usual performance on approach play. He was waylaid at Waialae with a wonky driver and simply couldn’t make enough putts at the Stadium Course to truly contend at the AMEX. He still has T19/T9 results to begin the year. Henley is, however, gaining an outrageous 1.56 SG: APP over those two starts. If he can keep his accuracy up off the tee, continue this amazing iron play, and not gag away all his chances on missed short putts, he’s primed to build off his T5 at Pebble Beach a year ago.

Sepp Straka — Straka’s ball striking isn’t all that dissimilar from a year ago, when he won twice. He just can’t really roll it right now. Which isn’t new. Straka is a miss-or-make-everything kind of guy. Plus, he was running away with this event a year ago before hitting the skids Saturday, allowing the entire field back into it. Hopefully, he learned over the past 12 months.

Akshay Bhatia — Fresh off a scorching irons week in Phoenix, Akshay has a lot lining up for him at Pebble. Soft conditions early, gusty conditions late, and slower greens where he’s excelled in his short career. He finally got back to driving the ball at an above-average rate last week, too. A first for him since last September.

Ryan Gerard — If you can’t make putts at Pebble, you’re dust. That would seem to disqualify Gerard. But here’s the thing: what if he’s figured it out? We’re always quick to buy into a little bit of form with the driver and irons, yet immediately disregard a reversal in putting. Now, I know why this is. The flat stick, even for the best putters, is the club with the highest variance. I get it. But Gerard has been awesome on the greens for the past two months, and no one has played more worldwide to put it into practice, gaining significantly in each of his first three PGA starts in 2026. No, I don’t have data from the Mauritius Open, sorry. Clearly, he’s in form with four second-place finishes (and a T11) over his past five starts and showed off some excellent ball control in the wind over the weekend last year at Valero.

Alex Noren & Aaron Rai — On paper, both Euros are the prototype players you want as long shots at Pebble Beach. The problem is that both have been terrible to start 2026. Now, both did notch wins during the fall on the DP World Tour, so great form isn’t all that far in the past. But we’ve seen Noren and Rai beat up on point-and-click coastal courses with slow greens in the past. And because of their slow starts, we’re getting very generous numbers, which opens up a sizable payout even if they only place in the top 8.

Michael Kim — Kim checks a shocking amount of boxes for what is demanded at Pebble: He’s the best sand player in the field, is one of a handful to still be Top 15 in the field in both over-emphasized proximity ranges 50-100 yards and 100-150 Yards. Plus, as a Cal guy, he’s well-versed in navigating California Poa. The driver was solid in Phoenix (usually his biggest hold back), and his approach numbers are down because of two really horrible shots Saturday. He actually gained on approach in three of the four rounds despite being in the negative for the tournament.

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2026 Pebble Beach Weather

The field will be split between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach GL on Thursday and Friday before everyone migrates to Pebble for the weekend. The wind looks manageable for the first two rounds, although it’s expected to be cold, with a projected high of 55 degrees. There could also be a sprinkle of rain on Friday afternoon. Since Pebble is directly on the coast, it’ll likely feel colder there than at Spyglass, which has tree protection.

Now, come the weekend, the winds arrive. I started tracking this on Saturday, and each day the bad weather has crept earlier and earlier into the forecast. Initially, it looked like Saturday would be calm with wind (but no rain) arriving on Sunday. Clearly, the forecast has changed. Temps will remain cool, and players will have to deal with swirling coastal conditions. Anecdotally, Europeans and those with DP World Tour experience tend to have more reps in this type of weather. That doesn’t mean they’re superior, however.

Windtower: Pebble Beach / Lone Cypress

There’s not a ton of golf played on the PGA TOUR in sub-60 degree weather, but the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf has all those rounds tracked. Here are the top players in 43-57 degrees weather from the past three years (minimum 8 Rounds). Of note: It’s a very limited sample.

Stats & Research Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf

2026 Pebble Beach DraftKings

Alex Blickle and I broke down the field from a DK perspective, made lineups, and reviewed WM Phoenix Open data on Scottie vs. non-Scottie lineups (More on that below). If you care what I think, I’m in favor of a combination of Tommy/Rose/Henely/Xander to start a lot of lineups. From the bottom, I’d run out Michael Kim, Chris Kirk, and/or Emiliano Grillo as my cheap options.

Stats & Research Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf

Scottie vs Non-Scottie Lineups

The numbers between Scottie and Non-Scottie lineups from Phoenix. Here’s what the results showed from the $55 GPP Sample.

Floor: Scottie Lineups Were Great

  • Scottie lineups averaged 4.9 cuts made
  • Non-Scottie lineups averaged 3.6 cuts made

That’s a massive difference. And importantly, it wasn’t just Scottie making the cut — the cheap punt plays in his builds also made cuts at a high rate.

So from a safety perspective, Scottie builds worked.

Ceiling: That’s Where It Fell Apart

When looking at upside metrics (Top 20s/Top 10s):

3+ Top 20s

  • Scottie lineups: 31.7%
  • Non-Scottie lineups: 35.8%

Small edge to balanced builds.

4+ Top 20s

  • Scottie lineups: 4.5%
  • Non-Scottie lineups: 14.8%

More than 3x more likely without Scottie.

5 Top 20s

  • 6.3x more likely without Scottie

4 Top 10s

  • Scottie lineups: 0%
  • Non-Scottie: 2.2%

Takeaway

Scottie builds:

  • Raise your floor (cuts made)
  • Cap your ceiling (not enough high-finishing combinations)

To win tournaments — especially small-field single entries — you need:

  • Multiple players contending
  • Bonus points stacking
  • Correlated upside

And the cheap players required to jam in Scottie don’t carry enough top-10 equity.

Contest Selection Matters…

Small-field single entry ($55, $200)

You don’t need an ultra-rare combo.
→ Fading Scottie creates a cleaner path to first.

Massive-field MME ($5/$25 with 100k+ entries)

If Scottie wins, someone will have him with the right cheap guys.
→ Now chasing the unlikely combo makes more sense.

Signature Event Twist (No Cut)

This week changes things:

  • Cheap players are stronger than usual
  • No missed-cut risk
  • $7,200 average remaining salary with Scottie gives access to legit upside names

That makes Scottie builds more viable than last week, but:

  • Ownership likely climbs to ~30%
  • If the leaderboard gets balanced (Henley, Cantlay, Fitz, Day, Lowry, etc.), Scottie builds could still get blocked out since taking Scheffler will make those combos impossible.