Sounding like a broken record all month: Because the WM Phoenix Open has a smaller purse, this is not the week to burn an elite player. Yeah, that’s been a theme, but with three signature events and the Players coming up over the next five weeks, you’ll have plenty of chances to use the best of the best soon.
One-and-done decisions should be based on long-term expected value, not just win probability. This event features higher variance, a deep field, aggressive scoring, and possible heavy ownership of a few of the top names. Using a star here costs you chances to capitalize at Signature Events, majors, and the playoffs that have far bigger payouts. The smart play is to save your best players and lean on strong mid-tier options instead. We’re looking for someone just outside of the elites, with a high floor, a good course fit, and the ability to sneak into the final group and really shoot you up the leaderboard.
This week gives us 123 men in the field, a normal 36-hole cut, and a total prize purse is $9.6 million, with the winner receiving $1.728 million. For more info on the course, you can read Ron’s extensive course preview article.
Cutmakers
Sorting out who’s been playing well can be done in a myriad of ways, but I always love just looking at finishing position (along with SG:TOT over certain time frames). This is the past 12 months of golf, sorted by top 10% (min. 8 starts, sorry Mr. Penge). Not that I need to fluff Scottie any more than he alreayd gets but lordy… his win percentage is nearly as high as his closest “competitions” top 10%.
Ball Strikers
This is one that’s approachable from 100 different stats and data points. Irons, long irons, GIR%, ball striking, proximity, etc…. There’s no real correct way to look at this, so I’d urge you to get into the Rabbit Hole and look at it from a few different angles. Regardless, though, strong approach play is going to pay dividends here, as it does at most tracks. I sorted this 12-month sample by one I use less frequently than maybe I should: tee to green.
Par 5 Efficiency
Commonly a deciding factor, but even moreso here, Par 5 scoring is one of the key ways that winners and high placers have set themselves apart from the field in the past. Obviously, being a bomber is going to help here, but you also need to have the mid to long irons and putting in your bag as well. Sorted by birdie or better rate over all par 5s over the past two years, this is an interesting group of names. Not many that are in strong consideration for me, but Coody is a popular betting name this week for sure and merits a look.
Putting and Scoring
Putting isn’t sticky, predictable, or terribly prescriptive, but there are a handful of golfers who have been consistently really good (or really bad) that stick out. The other 90% of the field tends to have mixed results on the greens. This is why I like to look at “spike putting” rather than just SG:P. Sorted here by the number of rounds where golfers gained at least 2 full strokes on the field from the putting surface, it’ll show those who are capable of pouring ’em in.
WMPO One and Done Suggestions
So, crossing off Scottie and Xander, who do you like from the next 10-15 or so in the odds?
While I think Hideki, Cam Young, and Si Woo are borderline saves, I can’t fault anyone for firing off one of them if they really believe in them here. Hovland is another tweener for me, but also likely an avoid since it’s his first rounds of golf this side of the pond for the year (he did T20 in Dubai).
The shortlist:
Corey Conners
Mav McNealy
Kurt Kitayama