WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview: Proven Picks and Key Stats

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Set against the Sonoran Desert and framed by the rugged McDowell Mountains, the PGA Tour arrives at TPC Scottsdale for this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish and completed in 1986, the course has hosted the event for 38 consecutive years, becoming one of the most recognizable stops on the schedule.

Dubbed “The People’s Open,” the tournament draws nearly 750,000 spectators annually and is renowned for its electric atmosphere—none more famous than the raucous par-3 16th hole. With massive crowds, high energy, and a layout that invites drama, the Phoenix Open routinely delivers one of the most memorable and unpredictable finishes of the season. In 15 of the last 19 years, the scoring margin has been one stroke and has included eight playoffs.

While TPC Scottsdale offers plenty of scoring opportunities, it has proven far from a pure birdie fest. The winning score has reached 20-under par only three times in the past 18 years, and over the last five editions scoring has averaged just -0.89 per round. Success here has consistently favored elite drivers and ball-strikers, with past champions including Scottie Scheffler (twice), Hideki Matsuyama (twice), Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, and Justin Thomas.

Distance and precision off the tee are especially valuable in the thinner desert air, where all three par-5s are reachable and can be aggressively attacked for crucial eagle and birdie opportunities. Course history also carries significant weight, as TPC Scottsdale ranks as the fourth most predictive course on the PGA Tour based on past performance.

The Field

After consecutive weeks of course rotations, it’s back to one course with a 123-player field and a cut after 36 holes with the top 65 and ties advancing to the weekend. Two-time WM Phoenix Open champion and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will make his second start of the season after earning his 20th PGA TOUR victory at the 2026 American Express.

As is typical for this event, the field is absolutely loaded with talent, and features 11 of the top 20 players in the world, including Xander Schauffele, J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin, Harris English, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Sam Burns. Another two-time winner here, Brooks Koepka, will be making his second straight start since rejoining the PGA Tour. The WM Phoenix Open is the final opportunity for players to earn FedExCup points towards the Aon Swing 5 with entry into the next Signature Events (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational).

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Scottsdale

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Total Driving
Birdie or Better %
Par 4 Scoring
TPC Scottsdale Course History
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Bent)
SG: OTT
Good Drive %
Scrambling – Short Grass

Unique Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: West
Course Type: Desert
Scoring Conditions: Average
Course Length: Average
Field Strength: Strong
Elevation: High
Event Season: West Coast
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
Greens Size: Large
OTT Club Type: Driver Heavy
Rough Penalty: Low
Gain OTT: Easy
Scrambling Short Grass: Difficult
Gain Putting: Easy

WM Phoenix Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.