2026 American Express – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour returns to the mainland as players head to the Coachella Valley desert in La Quinta, California, for The American Express at PGA West. This tournament is unique for several reasons. It is played as a Pro-Am, with each professional paired alongside an amateur for the first three rounds. Additionally, the event utilizes three different courses rather than the traditional single-course setup. Another departure from the norm is the cut, which takes place after 54 holes on Saturday instead of the usual 36-hole cut on Friday. Only the top 65 players and ties will advance to Sunday’s final round on the Stadium Course. Alongside the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club round out this week’s rotation. The latter two have ranked as the two easiest courses on the PGA Tour over the past five years, making extremely low scores the expectation. Players will compete on each of those courses just once during the week. After more than 50 years of various course changes, the current rotation has remained intact since 2016, with the lone exception coming in 2021 when La Quinta Country Club was not used.

Each course in the rotation shares many of the same characteristics. With typically calm winds and clear desert skies, this event is often described as “dome golf,” creating some of the easiest scoring conditions players will face all season. All three layouts feature four scoreable par 5s and measure under 7,200 yards. They also share similar agronomy, with smooth Poa trivialis greens and ryegrass fairways bordered by a non-penal first cut of overseeded rye rough, followed by a layer of dormant Bermuda rough beyond that.

The Stadium Course is the most demanding of the three layouts and will host two of the four rounds, including Sunday’s final round. Designed by Pete Dye, it features a challenging set of par 3s, numerous visually intimidating bunkers, and water hazards in play on seven holes. The course also underwent a significant restoration of its greens and bunkers between the 2024 and 2025 seasons, a renovation that contributed to tougher scoring last year, as it played to an average of 0.65 strokes under par per round.

Despite the Stadium Course’s added bite, winning scores at The American Express typically approach the 25-under-par range. All three venues are resort-style courses with pin placements intentionally set on the easier side to accommodate amateur partners from Thursday through Saturday. As a result, this event tends to favor a wide range of player profiles, with success often coming down to a pure putting contest—rewarding those with the hottest flat stick.

The Field

With the loss of the Sentry, the year’s first signature event, this year’s American Express is welcoming one of its strongest fields in recent memory. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will make his season debut this week. He last played here two years ago and finished a pedestrian 17th, while amateur Nick Dunlap claimed a stunning victory.

In addition to Scheffler, 11 0ther top-25 players are in the field including Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin, Justin Rose, Harris English, Alex Noren, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, and defending champion Sepp Straka.

Other notables in the field include Max Homa, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Akshay Bhatia, Wyndham Clark, Kurt Kitayama, Min Woo Lee, Andrew Novak, and Will Zalatoris. Thanks to the multiple-course format, a full field of 156 players will tee it up in the desert, making this week a valuable opportunity for those not fully exempt to improve their status and potentially earn a spot in the next signature event at Pebble Beach.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at PGA West

*In order of importance

Birdie or Better %
SG: APP
Par 5 Scoring
SG: Putting
Par 3 Birdie or Better %
Proximity 125-200 yds
SG: Easy Scoring courses
SG: Short courses
SG: Putting 5-15 ft
Bogey Avoidance (easy scoring courses)

Unique Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: West
Scoring Conditions: Very Easy/Easy
Course Length: Short/Very Short
Course Type: Desert
Architect: Pete Dye
Field Size: Full Field
Event Season: West Coast
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
Rough Length: Short
Missed Fairway Penalty: Low
GIR Accuracy: Easy
Gain Approach: Very Easy
Gain Putting: Very Easy

Weather Forecast – La Quinta, CA

American Express – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.