The PGA Tour heads east from Hawaii to the Coachella Valley desert in La Quinta, California, for The American Express at PGA West. This event changes its name like Collin Morikawa changes caddies, so if you’re looking at past events, it could be anything from the Desert Classic to the CareerBuilder Challenge to the Bob Hope Classic.
The American Express is a unique event to handicap. This three-course rotation includes a Pro-Am element, where each pro tees off with an amateur for the first three rounds of the tournament. It also features a 54-hole cut on Saturday night after each golfer has played a round on the event’s three courses. Once everyone’s made their way around the Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club, and The Stadium Course, the cut-makers will head back out to play The Stadium Course once again for the final round.
Last season, I skipped the top of the odds board and trusted my model, leaning heavily on how the field has performed on short tracks with easy scoring conditions, which led me to eventual champ Sepp Straka at 70/1. I’m running back the same model this week, and only betting on golfers who rank highly in the final result.
A Pete Dye design, The Stadium Course is the only place with Shotlink data for this event. That means we’re flying blind with strokes-gained data for all rounds at Nicklaus and La Quinta. All three of this week’s courses share several common characteristics, though. Each features four scoreable par-5 holes and measures under 7,200 yards. They all have Poa trivialis greens and ryegrass fairways, which are bordered by non-penal dormant Bermuda rough. Furthermore, they are among the easiest annual courses in the PGA Tour rotation.
The Stadium Course is the most challenging of the three courses and will host two of the four rounds, including the final round. It features smaller greens, numerous bunkers, and seven holes with water hazards. Most of the par-4 holes are designed to be “less-than-driver” due to their narrow fairways and strategically placed bunkers. Strong wedge play from 125 yards or closer is essential for players who adopt an aggressive approach off the tee, and overall, the average approach shot distance is roughly 6 yards shorter than the average PGA Tour event.
An important detail about the grasses on all three courses is that the Bermuda grass is dormant during this time of year. The fairways and rough are overseeded with ryegrass, while the greens are overseeded with Poa trivialis. The new greens at the Stadium Course, which returned to their original size of an average of 7,000 square feet, up from 5,000 square feet, played much firmer last season and affected approach shots.
A glance at past leaderboards makes it clear that the winner must go low. The Pro-Am format results in slower greens and amateur-friendly pin placements, so prior success in easy scoring conditions is advantageous. Charley Hoffman‘s 2007 victory here was the only one in which the winner did not break 20 under par.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Stadium Course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total, Easy, and Very Easy Scoring Conditions
- SG: Total, Short, and Very Short Courses
- Birdie or Better%
- SG: APP, Short and Very Short Courses
- SG: P, Poa Trivialis Greens
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice. If you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s American Express Outright Targets
Matt Fitzpatrick (33/1)
From June 2024 until this past year’s PGA Championship (May 2025), Matt Fitzpatrick made 21 starts around the world. He finished T-20 or better just one time (2024 FedEx St. Jude, T-18). He seemed lost. His short game abandoned him. His ball-striking was inconsistent. There was no bankable skill that could get him through each round. But he has clearly turned a corner and looks to be set up for a big 2026.
Fitzpatrick has made 16 starts since the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow (T-8 finish), and he’s landed among the top 10 in nine of the 16 starts, including a playoff win over Rory McIlroy last time out in November at the DP World Tour Championship. Fitzpatrick’s approach play has been outstanding, and his short game has been flawless. I’m banking on a big 2026 from Fitzpatrick, and that starts this week.
Si Woo Kim (50/1)
Si Woo Kim models extremely well for me this week, making him an easy click at 50/1. He’s an excellent fit, and a previous winner of the event, and he lapped the field in SG: T2G at last week’s Sony Open. He lost over a stroke per round on the greens, which can be Kim’s undoing at times. The good news here is that over the past two years, he’s +0.22 strokes per round putting on Poa Trivialis greens, the only surface where he’s at or above the field average.
Over that same two-year time frame, Si Woo Kim is eighth in SG: BS on courses that lean “less than driver” heavy, and SG: Total on short and very short golf courses. If we see a field average putting week from Kim, he’ll be in contention on Sunday. This price won’t last.
Alex Noren (50/1)
Like Matt Fitzpatrick, I knew I’d be interested in Alex Noren this week, but I didn’t expect him to model particularly well, since much of his best work of late has come on the DPWT. We’ll solve for that gap soon, with DPWT data coming to Betsperts Golf this spring. But Noren is seventh in my model this week, without the benefit of his torrid fall.
Noren won the Betfred British Masters in August and then won the BMW PGA Championship in September. He was an assistant captain for Luke Donald’s European Ryder Cup team at Bethpage, but he could’ve easily been on the team as a player. He posted two other T20’s on the DPWT this fall, and then finished runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama at the Hero World Challenge in early December.
Noren is a pretty streaky player historically, and I’m looking to ride the wave of recent good play at 50/1.
J.T. Poston (70/1)
If you’re on the PGA Tour or even PGA Tour adjacent, you’re a tremendous golfer. Still, there are a handful of events that the J.T. Postons of the world can’t win or truly compete at, but this is not one of them.
Over the past two years, J.T. Poston has ranked sixth in SG: Total on courses with easy and very easy scoring conditions. It gets even better for Poston if those courses are considered short or very short. Poston also loves Poa Trivialis greens. He ranks second in this week’s field in SG: Short Game on Poa Trivialis greens over the past two seasons, and that’s important this week with small greens and the need to hole putts. I’m not factoring in course history this week, just course fit, but they overlap here with Poston, who’s finished T25, T6, T11, and T12 here the past four years.
Akshay Bhatia (80/1)
Akshay Bhatia just missed the top ten in my model this week, but I like his fit here, despite poor previous results, and he’s someone I expect to take another step forward in 2026. Bhatia hired Joe Greiner as his full-time caddy late in 2025, and I see that as a positive, stabilizing partnership this season.
Bhatia’s an elite wedge player, which matters at this week’s short layouts. He’ll also benefit from clubbing down at a decently high rate, since spraying driver all over the property has been a root cause for a lot of his inconsistent play over the past 18 months. Bhatia also shows well on Poa Trivialis greens, gaining 0.47 strokes per round on average over the past two years.
Max Greyserman (100/1)
I don’t bet on Max Greyserman often, mainly because his ball-striking numbers are far too inconsistent for my liking, but he’s an elite putter, and someone I want to back when birdies are the recipe for success. When you filter by easy and very easy scoring conditions, Greyserman ranks fourth in SG: Total over the past two seasons, and fifth in birdie-or-better rate.
Greyserman didn’t play a lot during the fall’s swing season, but he did finish one stroke off Xander Schauffele in Japan at the Baycurrent Classic. His best chance to win in 2025 came in Detroit, another birdiefest, and he led the field in approach at last year’s American Express, good enough to finish in seventh place, so he’ll look to build on that this season.
