With The Sentry absent from the 2026 schedule, the Sony Open at the venerable Waialae Country Club in Honolulu stands as the first official tournament of the PGA Tour season. Having rewarded shot-makers for more than six decades, champions such as Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Lee Trevino, and Ben Crenshaw have all triumphed here, underscoring a course that continues to withstand the test of time. Hosting the Sony Open since 1965, Waialae is the third-oldest continuously used venue on Tour, trailing only Colonial Country Club and Pebble Beach Golf Links. Unfortunately, if new PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp has his way, that streak might be ending. Rolapp has openly discussed adding “simplicity” and “scarcity” to the schedule with rumors abounding that the 2027 PGA season might not begin until after the Super Bowl.
Waialae CC is a classic par-70 layout that is distinguished by its narrow corridors, sharp doglegs, unpredictable Bermuda rough, and firm greens. It is a positional track that has effectively neutralized any advantages held by bombers off the tee. With the potential for trade winds to swirl, this week is about strategy, position, and accuracy on a tight and flat course. In the words of Kevin Kisner, “I like that it’s a shot-maker’s golf course. It’s a shorter, ball-striker’s paradise. You’ve got to play to certain spots. I think it’s Point A to Point B and make some putts.” This is why we typically see the same type of player (shorter-hitting ball-striker with a quality short game) succeed here year after year.
While not a complete birdie-fest, the average winning score over the past five tournaments has been -19, ranking as the ninth easiest annual course on the PGA Tour. It’s a course where quality shots can lead to birdies on almost every hole. But if you are in the rough or out of position, scrambling for par can be a challenge. It is also the fifth-most predictive course on the schedule. Those who have a successful track record at Waialae tend to contend here on a yearly basis.
The Field
With numerous tournament champions from 2025 not able to start their year at The Sentry as planned, this will be one of the strongest Sony Open fields ever with seven of the top 17 and 26 of the top 60 in the Official World Golf Rankings in attendance. The main headliners include Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, J.J. Spaun, Robert MacIntyre, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth.
It is also set to be a significant week for players who earned their PGA Tour cards via the DP World Tour in 2025, with seven of the 10 graduates teeing it up. Dan Brown secured his PGA Tour playing rights after Laurie Canter joined LIV Golf at the end of December. The remaining DP World Tour graduates in the field are Haotong Li, Keita Nakajima, John Parry, Kristoffer Reitan, Adrien Saddier, and Jordan Smith.
Other notables in the field include Brian Harman, Corey Conners, Maverick McNealy, Chris Gotterup, Aaron Rai, Si Woo Kim, and last year’s Sony Open winner, Nick Taylor. One notable change to this year’s tournament—one that will unfortunately be seen throughout much of the PGA Tour schedule—is a reduced field of just 120 players, down from the traditional 144.
The purse is $9,100,000 with a winner’s share north of $1.5 million. FedEx Cup points earned will go toward the Aon Swing 5, the path to the next signature event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Past Winners & Odds
Most Important Stats For Success at Waialae Country Club
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF)
- Par 4 BoB %
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- SG: Par 70 courses
- Proximity 125-200 yds
- Waialae CC Course History
- SG: Short courses
- Bogeys Avoided
- SG: ARG
Unique Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Hawaii
- Scoring Conditions: Easy
- Course Length: Short/Very Short
- Course Type: Coastal/Island
- Field Size: Full Field
- Par: 70
- Greens Surface: Bermuda
- Green Size: Large
- Rough Surface: Bermuda
- OTT Club Type: Mixed
- Gain APP: Easy
- Gain ARG: Very Easy
Sony Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19i-hiCajStRLdyrYp6oppRreHO0aILFFIZnmxMhn0dE/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
- B. Griffin +1900 (1.26u) – FD
- Harman +5500 (0.43u) – Caesars
- McCarthy +5500 (0.43u) – Caesars
- Echavarria +5500 (0.43u) – Rivers
- McCarty +6000 (0.40u) – DK
- Cole +6600 (0.36u) – Rivers
- Berger +6600 (0.36u) – MGM
- Horschel +8000 (0.30u) – 365
Finish Positions
Top 10
- Henley +145 (1u) – DK
Top 20
- B. Griffin +100 (1.3u) – FD
- Spaun +100 (1.1u) – DK
- Conners +145 (1.1u) – FD
Top 30
- Rai +100 (1.2u) – Rivers
- Taylor +110 (1u) – Rivers
- McCarthy +130 (1u) – DK
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images