With TPC Louisiana being a second-shot course where driving accuracy has proven not to matter as much, I will be focusing on players who are strong in SG: Approach and who can avoid the numerous greenside bunkers and water hazards. With typically softer and damp conditions, along with four par-5s and four par-4s over 470 yards, distance off the tee and par-5 scoring will be the other main attributes I will target with my team selection. It is also interesting to note that the par-3s are all lengthy and guarded by water, and players with past success on tougher par-3s are another factor to target.
In general, though, I will be taking a very basic approach in targeting teams that are in the best form (using SG: Total) over the past 24 rounds and who also create and convert the most birdie or better opportunities. Modeling and studying analytics doesn’t really work for this event due to the team structure of the event. The chemistry amongst partners along with complementary skill sets (approach/putting) are typically much more relevant at a team event than is raw data or player ranking methods.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bFinally, keep in mind that with this being a team competition, it is very important to consider the weaker member on each team that you are targeting. This especially holds true in the alternate shot format on Friday and Sunday where both players on each team will have to carry their own weight. With no model for the week, I am relying on the above criteria along with my own intuition on the teams that have the best combination of winning potential and value.
All that being said, with a volatile and unique event this week I am building most of my lineups with three “upper-tier” teams and then dipping down into the $6-7K range and mixing and matching. Without a doubt my main core this week is the duo of Billy Horschel and Sam Burns. I will combine them with Max Homa and Talor Gooch in the majority of my lineups as I believe they present the best combination of talent, form, and value on the board at $9.1K.
Core Plays
Billy Horschel and Sam Burns, $10.0K
Horschel won the individual event here back in 2013 and also won the team event in 2018 with Scott Piercy. He has professed his love for this course and the team format. Just last year, Horschel and Burns teamed up for a 4th place finish. Horschel ranks 5th in the field in SG: Total over the past 24 rounds and has gained 21.4 strokes ball-striking over his last four measured events. While Burns struggled at the Masters, he won the Valspar Championship only a month ago and is one of the best young players in the game. He brings some pop off the tee and that length will help on the par-5s and longer par-4s. Backing chalk like this has proven successful at this event, and the history of these two, both at this event and with their overall form, makes it even more of a logical choice.
Max Homa and Talor Gooch, $9.1K
Both players come into this event with solid chemistry having played numerous practice rounds together along with partnering at this event last year (17th-place finish). Homa and Gooch each rank in the top-18 tee-to-green. Gooch is one of the best long par-3 players while both are in the top-11 in Strokes Gained on par-5 holes over the past 36 rounds. Even more importantly, both players have been regulars at the top of leaderboards over the past six months.
Upper-Tier Plays
Joaquin Niemann and Mito Pereira, $9.2K
The Chilean countrymen are two of the best up-and-coming players on Tour. Combined, they rank in the top-15 on Tour in both SG: Total and Birdie or Better % over the last 24 rounds. Niemann ranks 2nd in tee-to-green in the entire field, and both he and Pereira are in the top-18 in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. Birdie opportunities inside 15 feet is a very important metric for this event. Pereira ranks 11th and Niemann 20th over their past 50 rounds. They also have a combined 10 top-35 finishes over their last 12 events which shows a remarkable level of consistency.
Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, $10.4K
These Ryder Cup partners form the most formidable duo in the field. The biggest question of the tournament for me is whether they will play up to their potential. They are two of the most consistent players on Tour and neither has a weakness, other than perhaps underachieving on the leaderboard. Their consistency is highlighted by the fact that over the past 50 rounds each has gained strokes on the field in each of the main categories.
Mid-Range Plays
Adam Hadwin and Adam Svensson, $8.0K
This Canadian duo is definitely on the upswing. Hadwin has seven top-26 finishes in the past three months. Svensson has made seven of his last 10 cuts which is a major improvement from where his game was last year. Each is strong with their irons and overall both have a very similar game. At the very least they should be good for a made cut.
Joseph Bramlett and Maverick McNealy, $7.7K
Both players have been birdie machines at times since the start of the new year. Their birdie rate per round is the 7th best in the field. Both players are strong off the tee – Bramlett with distance and McNealy with accuracy. Each has the potential to get hot with their irons and putter as well.
Value Plays
Alex Noren and Henrik Norlander, $7.5K
Tyler Duncan and Adam Schenk, $7.1K
Harry Higgs and Austin Smotherman, $7.1K
Doc Redman and Sam Ryder, $7.1K
Wesley Bryan and Trey Mullinax, $6.3K
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