2025 Open Championship – Betting Preview

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The 153rd Open Championship returns to the majestic coast of Northern Ireland as Royal Portrush Golf Club plays host to golf’s oldest and most prestigious major. Steeped in over 160 years of history, The Open—first contested in 1860 at Prestwick—has crowned legends of the game from Old Tom Morris to Tiger Woods.

As the only venue outside of mainland Great Britain to have ever staged The Open, Portrush stands apart with its rugged beauty, rich history, and undeniable test of championship golf. Nestled above the Atlantic Ocean in County Antrim, Royal Portrush boasts stunning views of the Skerries and Donegal cliffs, offering a dramatic stage as players vie for the Claret Jug.

The Dunluce Links, originally laid out by Harry Colt and updated by Martin Ebert for the 2019 Open, is a relentless challenge carved through towering dunes and wind-swept terrain. Royal Portrush features dramatic elevation changes, firm and undulating fairways, and small, elevated greens—all of which place a premium on precise approach play. Players must control trajectory and distance to hold these tricky green complexes, especially when factoring in coastal winds and uneven lies throughout the course.

Royal Portrush’s hole variety is a masterclass in links design. The mix of hole lengths, directions, and topographical features ensures that no two holes play the same, and that players must deploy every club and every ounce of creativity in the bag.

Royal Portrush made a triumphant return to the Open Championship rota in 2019 after a 68‑year hiatus (1951), and the longest gap in the tournament’s history. The successful return culminated with Northern Ireland’s own Shane Lowry’s emphatic six-shot victory, electrifying the passionate home crowd and reestablishing Portrush’s legacy for years to come. Last year, Xander Schauffele claimed his first Claret Jug, finishing at 9‑under after a spectacular final‑round 65, edging out Justin Rose and Billy Horschel by two strokes.

The Field

The field for the 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush features 156 players, comprising a mix of the world’s best professionals and a select group of elite amateurs. As is tradition with The Open, the field is drawn from a wide range of qualification categories, including major champions, world rankings, international tours, and Final Qualifying. Chris Gotterup, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Matti Schmid were the final three players to gain entry into the Open field based on their finish at the Scottish Open.

This year’s field is stacked with talent, including the majority of the top 70 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. Leading the way is World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who comes in as the most consistent player in the game, with multiple wins and top finishes in 2025. Rory McIlroy, the 2014 Open Champion and native of Northern Ireland, returns to Portrush with a chance to win in front of a home crowd. Xander Schauffele, the reigning Open Champion, and Jon Rahm, a two-time major winner with past success on Irish links, also headline the field. Other high-profile contenders include Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, and Tommy Fleetwood, all of whom have the pedigree and links course experience to contend on this demanding layout.

The LIV Golf contingent has its largest representation yet at a major, with 19 players teeing it up at Royal Portrush. This includes top names like Bryson DeChambeau, fresh off a major win earlier this season, as well as Dustin Johnson, Tyrrell Hatton, and Cameron Smith, the 2022 Open Champion. Several LIV players qualified through exemptions, world ranking positions, or Final Qualifying events.

From the DP World Tour, the top-30 players in the 2024 Final Race to Dubai Rankings and the first five players on the 2025 Race to Dubai Ranking not otherwise exempt have also gained entry into this week’s field. This includes players such as Laurie Canter, Thriston Lawrence, Marco Penge, Jordan Smith, and Kristoffer Reitan.

The Open Championship uses a straightforward cut rule: the top 70 players and ties after 36 holes advance to the weekend. Unlike some other tournaments, such as the Masters, there is no 10-shot rule—meaning players outside the top 70 are eliminated regardless of how close they are to the lead. This creates a more defined line and often raises the pressure on Friday, especially for those hovering near the cut late on Friday as conditions toughen and Portrush bares its teeth.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at Royal Portrush

*In order of importance

SG: Approach (Difficult APP, Small Greens)
Distance From Edge of Fairway/Driving Accuracy (Difficult OTT)
Scrambling – Short Grass (Difficult ARG/Short Grass)
Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring)
SG Total (Very Difficult/Difficult Scoring)
SG: Open Championship/Links courses
SG: Putting (Last 50 rds/Slow Greens)
Total Driving
SG: Wind 18+ mph
Par 4 BoB% (Difficult Par 4s)

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: UK/Ireland, Coastal
Scoring Conditions: Very Difficult
Course Length: Long
Field Strength: Very Strong
Par: 71
Event Type: Major
Green Surface: Native
Green Speed: Slow
Green Size: Small
Architect: Harry Colt
Missed Fairway Penalty: High
Rough Penalty: High
Gain OTT: Very Difficult
Gain APP: Very Difficult
Gain ARG: Very Difficult
Scrambling – Short Grass: Difficult

Weather Forecast – Portrush, Northern Ireland

Open Championship – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.