2025 John Deere Classic – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour stays in the Midwest this week, shifting from Detroit in the city to a rural setting on the banks of the Rock River along the Illinois-Iowa border for the John Deere Classic. First held in 1971 as the Quad Cities Open, the tournament found a permanent home in 2000 at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, where it has remained a steady fixture on the PGA Tour schedule.

Coming off a “birdie-fest” in Detroit, this week will present more of the same. Often turning into a putting contest and low-scoring shootout, TPC Deere Run features wide fairways, tight doglegs, receptive greens, and relatively straightforward putting surfaces. It is very scoreable for players who excel at managing their way strategically around the course, rather than trying to overpower it. It’s no surprise that each of the last 15 winners has finished at 18-under or better, including last year’s champion Davis Thompson, who set a tournament record at 28-under par.

While all playing styles can have success at TPC Deere Run, this course has favored fairway finders and accurate wedge players who can get streaky hot with their putter. Past winners such as J.T. Poston, Steve Stricker, Jordan Spieth, and Brian Harman exemplify these traits.

The Field

Due to its spot on the calendar, the John Deere Classic typically features one of the weaker fields on the PGA Tour schedule. This year, the tournament falls two weeks before the Open Championship, with most of the elite players choosing to rest for a second consecutive week before heading across the pond to play in next week’s Scottish Open. The field is headlined by world No. 17, Ben Griffin, who will be playing his 10th event in the last 11 weeks. Other players of note include last year’s winner, Davis Thompson, Sungjae Im, J.T. Poston, Denny McCarthy, Jason Day, Lucas Glover, and Stephan Jaeger.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Deere Run

*In order of importance

Birdie or Better% (Easy Scoring)
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bent)
SG: Easy/Very Easy Scoring
Proximity: 75-150 yds
Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF)
Par 4 BoB% (Easy Par 4s)
SG: ARG (Difficult to gain ARG)
Good Drive% (Long Rough)
Putting %: 5-15 feet

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Midwest
Course Type: TPC
Scoring Conditions: Very Easy
Course Length: Short
Field Strength: Weak/Very Weak
Field Size: Full Field
Greens Surface: Bent
Green Size: Small
Rough Surface: Bluegrass
Rough Length: Long
Rough Penalty: High
Gain OTT: Easy/Very Easy
Gain APP: Easy
Fairway Accuracy: Easy
GIR Accuracy: Easy
Scrambling – Short Grass: Difficult
Gain Putting: Very Easy

Weather Forecast – Silvis, Illinois

John Deere Classic – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.