I won’t bore you with the whole “I don’t know where you are in the standings or who you have left” speech this week. We’ll just get down to brass tacks and find some guys that could play well this week. Although, I will say, despite the smaller purse ( $9.6 million, $1.728 million to the champ), there is likely a good chance to find a “sleeper” type name, and have him at very low ownership, helping you chasers catch up a little bit if you’re right.
Cutmakers
Looking at the average finish for the past twelve months is a GREAT example of how you need to turn your brain on a touch and use some context when looking at data. Collin Morikawa tops the list, but is going through yet another caddie change and a possible putter switch as well. Buyer beware.
Total Driving
Distance is a big help here (most places), but accuracy is not thrown out the window with the rough in Detroit. Total Driving marries the two, but I wanted to have a similar metric that doesn’t exist, where driving and accuracy are combined, but heavier on the driving side. So, I made one in the Rabbit Hole. Driving distance over the past year was weighted in a 2:1 ratio with accuracy. Some sprayers at the top, but you can see a couple of names that do both well, maybe in some limited samples. Cam Champ is a winner on a very comparable track at the 3M.
Wedges Again
Like last week, we’re talking short approaches again, and I attempted to slide together a couple of ranges in a proper ratio to see who has been throwing darts from up close. This is a minimum 30 rounds over the past year in the 50-100 and 100-150 ranges from fairway OR rough. Grillo is someone I peeked at a bit, but haven’t been able to fit into my betting card so far. Maybe a nice DFS play at the salary though.
Par 5 Wizardry
With three reachable par 5s, the leaderboard is going to be gettable for guys who can score and score ofter on these. Filtered by Easy and Average SG gained on Par 5s over the past year and then sorted by birdie of better rate. A couple guys hitting 60%! Jeremy Paul has a KFT win (I had to look him up)
Rocket Challenge One and Done Suggestions
Are you near the top? Maybe a good week to use a guy no one seems to know when to use: Hideki Matsuyama.
If you’re chasing, I think it’s time to have some fun with a name you like, hell, maybe a name you bet to win at a big number
Harry Hall
Max Greyserman
Keith Mitchell
Rico Hoey
and… a guy I bet that you probably have left since he’s sucked all year: Max Homa?