After a thrilling U.S. Open that saw J.J. Spaun overcome a four-shot deficit on the back nine at Oakmont to capture his first major, the Tour heads to the Northeast and back to familiar territory for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut. One of the most popular tournaments among players, caddies, and fans, its huge crowds make it the second-most attended Tour event, behind only the Waste Management Open. The Travelers is a “signature” event for the third consecutive year, featuring 71 of the best players in a no-cut format.
TPC River Highlands is a classical, tree-lined par-70 Pete Dye design where shot-shaping is almost required and players are encouraged to get creative and utilize every club in their bag. It is very scoreable yet will challenge players simultaneously thanks to its penal rough, challenging pin placements on small tiered greens, and subtle changes in direction. Players who are accurate with their position off the tee, who can separate from the field with their wedges and short irons, and who can get on a roll with the putter have the best chance for success. 2019 winner, Chez Reavie summed up the course quite succinctly. “You can shape it both ways off the tee – hit every club in your bag from longer irons to short irons. It’s just a test of all your shots.”
The average winning score since 2010 has been -17 and has included a variety of golfers. There has, however, been a recent trend of more quality, upper-tier players winning this event. The average odds of the last nine winners is +3500 and includes elite players such as Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Bubba Watson (twice), Jordan Spieth, and Dustin Johnson. Thanks to its tremendous finishing stretch of holes, it regularly delivers a climactic ending with 15 of the last 21 events being decided by one shot or less, including a playoff in six of the last 13 years. In 2023, the scoring average was -1.60 per round as Keegan Bradley torched the course, finishing at -23. This led Tour officials to “toughen” up the layout. But scoring was even easier last year at -2.37 per round, with Scheffler winning at -22.
The Field
With this being the third tournament in the last four weeks as either a signature event or a major, fatigue may become a factor at TPC River Highlands this week. This is especially true when considering the mentally taxing courses and difficult scoring conditions of Muirfield Village and Oakmont. For now, every eligible player in the top 40 of the world rankings will be in attendance, except Justin Rose and the injured Billy Horschel and Sahith Theegala.
Past Winners & Odds
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC River Highlands
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach (Proximity from 75-150 yds)
- SG: Putting (Bentgrass – Bent/Poa)
- Par 4 Scoring
- SG: OTT (Less than driver courses)
- BoB% (easier scoring courses)
- Bogey AVD (easier scoring courses)
- SG: ARG
- SG: TPC River Highlands/Comp Courses
- Scrambling – Rough
- Distance From Edge of Fairway
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Northeast
- Course Length: Very Short
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Field Size: Small Field
- Par: 70
- Event Type: No Cut
- Greens Surface: Bent/Poa
- Green Size: Small
- Rough Surface: Bluegrass
- Rough Length: Long
- Architect: Pete Dye
- OTT Club Type: Less than Driver
- Missed Fairway Penalty: High
- Rough Penalty: High
- GAIN ARG: Very Difficult
- Scrambling – Rough: Difficult
Weather Forecast – Cromwell, CT
Travelers Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZqyYPY-mzkzjAagCbGQcAnNIJxu3FsHZ0JRIkyg7iBg/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Schauffele +1800 (1.33u) – Rivers
- Hovland +3500 (0.67u) – Rivers
- Henley +5500 (0.43u) – FD
- Matsuyama +6000 (0.40u) – FD
Winner without Scottie Scheffler
- Harman +7000 (0.34u) – FD
- Novak +9000 (0.26u) – FD
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images