These get harder and harder to write as we go. Not only because we’re at a spot where you’ve used up 25 golfers, but there’s also the question of strategy based on where you are in the standings. On top of that, those strategies are going to mesh with each other and differ based on the combination of players you have. A person leading that saved big names isn’t going to play it the same as a person leading that has a bare cupboard.
So, I’ll do the best I can to lay out who I think finds the first page of the leaderboard here and leave the thinking up to you. This is also the second-to-last chance to use some LIV players, adding a final wrinkle to this already taxing week.
I hated to include results at like say, Myrtle Beach here, so I did end up leaving filters on that sorted out basically any event with easy scoring conditions or a weak field. So, let’s see who excelled int he tough conditions against the big guns:
Cutmakers
Tons of big names on this list, with some obvious “0.0” spots in the Win% column on the usual suspects. This is the past two years of golf, with players having at least five starts in the tough conditions/tough fields. It just goes to show, most often, when the stakes are high and the course in unforgiving, the cream rises to the top.
Clubhead Speed
I think driving distance, carry distance, and long irons are all obviously important, but a common trait between folks good at all three is just simply going to be club head speed. A secondary issue that this solves is being able to muscle your way out of nasty, tall rough when you inevitably find yourself in trouble.
This one isn’t filtered by anything, since I don’t think that does us any good. This might be a good one to use to sort out some of your wagers as well, possibly by sorting by lowest speed and seeing who’s been getting it done without (popular pick Sepp Straka is near the bottom of the list)
Three-Putt Avoidance
Noonan covered this well in one of his videos this week. The greens are impossibly fast, but also massive. So finding yourself on the wrong end of a long green might actually be worse than some spots just off the green complexes. Here are the top ten in Noonan’s putting model (you can find the whole thing in the Expert Rankings in the Rabbit Hole). As he points out, seeing Scottie Scheffler this high on the list is a bad sign for the other guys in the field, as it was something he struggled with for quite a while.
Grinders
Finally, I built another mini-model looking at a few traits that everyone needs to stay out of trouble here, again all sorted on tough courses/high-end fields. Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance, Hitting Greens, and find your way home out of the rough. Funny enough, Niemann pops up (along with Noonan’s crush, Bud Cauley).
U.S. Open One and Done Suggestions
It’s a major, and not only that, last year it was the biggest purse out of the four majors at $21.5 million. So, you can’t get too cute if you have the names and your near the top. There is a case to get a little wilder if you are chasing, but again, you really have to feel confident in a name if you’re going past the top 30-40 golfers I’d think.
The list is pretty boring in my opinion, it’s a damn major, you need to use a major name that you trust here:
Joaquin Niemann
Bryson DeChambeau
Scottie Scheffler
Jon Rahm
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Harris English
Keegan Bradley
Corey Conners
Cam Young