I’m not alone, but this is my favorite event of the year. It’s just different. It means a little bit more, and everyone knows it. The nostalgia of it all. The pomp and circumstance. I love all of it. It’s familiar. It’s your favorite t-shirt fresh out of the dryer. Magnolia Lane. The azaleas. I can’t get enough of it.
If you haven’t already done so, please take a moment to check out my Masters Players Guide. It features a quick look at every player in this year’s field, including their recent history at Augusta National and their best career finish here, along with a statistical look at their recent form heading into the week.
Augusta National, a par-72 layout stretching out over 7,500 yards, is far more than just a collection of demanding holes. The course itself is a masterpiece of design, with meticulously crafted elevation changes that influence club selection and strategic thinking. The routing of holes offers a constant mix of risk-reward scenarios, forcing players to choose between conservative play and aggressive birdie attempts. Amen Corner is a prime example of fortunes being made or shattered in a single shot.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none, and it’s free this week. It’s a priority read.
Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Augusta National course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Augusta National
- SG: Majors
- SG: Total (Long/Very Long Courses + Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
- Carry Distance
- SG: ARG (short grass)
- SG: APP (Long Courses/SG: APP, difficult)
- Par 5 Scoring Average (Augusta National Par 5 scoring when applicable)
- 3-putt avoidance% (Fast greens)
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
We have partnered with BetMGM to bring you an easy way to claim a FREE, no-strings-attached Free Betsperts Golf Yearly Subscription, plus up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if you don’t win!
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Masters Outright Targets
Jon Rahm (15/1, Bet365)
We’re not getting much of a discount on Rahm at this price, but should he be 3x Scottie or 2.5x Rory? I don’t think he should.
Jon Rahm had a Major Championship year to forget in 2024. His T45 finish at the Masters was the worst result in his eight career starts at Augusta National. He followed it up by missing the cut at Valhalla, and then a toe injury forced him to withdraw from the U.S. Open at Pinehurst shortly before the week began. He salvaged it with a T7 at The Open, but he finished eight shots behind eventual champ Xander Schauffele and was never truly in contention.
It’s been surprising to some, myself included, that Jon Rahm has only won twice in 25 starts on the LIV circuit, but he’s finished T5 or better in nearly half of his starts and hasn’t been outside of the top-9 in the five 2025 events. This is still a world-class golfer who’s an outstanding fit for this course, and I think he reminds the world of that this week.
Xander Schauffele (24/1, Bet365)
Can Xander Schauffele walk off the 18th green on Sunday and be the current champion at three of the four majors? I think he can.
Xander Schauffele played so well in 2024 that there was a moment when people were genuinely discussing him as a Player of the Year favorite. As in, over Scottie Scheffler. The footnotes of history will forget it, but the good news for Xander Schauffele is that Major Championship victories live forever.
The questions surrounding Xander are no longer about whether he can close. Heading into this year’s event, the questions are predominantly focused on his recent form as he returns from an injury that sidelined him for most of January and February. He looked rusty at Bay Hill and Sawgrass before showing a bit more of his 2024 form at the Valspar, where he led the field in SG: APP. The questions are justified, and the oddsmakers have priced it in. For context, Schauffele went off at 15/1 at the 2024 Masters.
Will Zalatoris (66/1, BetRivers)
We haven’t seen Will Zalatoris truly contend in any event in quite a while, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix again over the weekend here. He’s made three starts at the Masters, finishing inside the top ten in each of them, and he’s confident that his game is pretty close to competing on the biggest stages again.
Zalatoris hasn’t T10’d in any start since last year’s Masters, but he’s made the cut in 11 straight starts, finishing T25 or better in six of the 11. His putter usually is the culprit when he underperforms, but it’s noteworthy that he’s gained 1.18 strokes per round putting on these bentgrass greens at Augusta National. Zalatoris, for all of his putting woes, has always been an above-average lag putter, which is crucial here.
Cam Smith (70/1, BetRivers)
Cam Smith had an awesome run this past fall, finishing T3, T2, 2, T39, and T2 in five straight events in Australia and the Middle East. He hasn’t threatened the top of the board in any of his LIV starts in 2025, with his T9 last week at Doral his best finish, but his Masters history is so strong that it’s difficult to ignore. In fact, Smith trails only Scottie Scheffler in Par 5 scoring and total strokes gained at Augusta National over the past five Masters.
Smith showed last year that form doesn’t matter when you have his particular set of skills. He withdrew from last year’s LIV Miami event at Doral leading up to the 2024 Masters and still went 71-72-72-71 to finish in a tie for sixth. In order to bet on someone to win this event, I believe lead-in form is a must, and I’ve seen enough from Smith to back him at this price. He’s available in the +150 range to finish inside the top 20 (FanDuel, ties included), which is one of my favorite bets on the board right now.
Robert McIntyre (85/1, Caesars)
After he fired a second-round 64 in Singapore, I scooped up a rogue 85/1 in the outright market on Bobby Mac and shared it with our Betsperts Golf subscribers. His longest current number is 60, which is still worth considering if you missed the longer prices.
MacIntyre returns to Augusta for the first time since 2022, bringing excellent recent form. He missed the cut at Torrey Pines in February, but he played well the week before in Scottsdale (T6), and he followed up strong showings at Bay Hill (T11) and Sawgrass (9th) before his T9 finish on the DP World Tour’s Singapore stop as his lead-in event. He’s finished T23 and T12 in his previous two starts at Augusta, and I think he’s made significant strides since he was last here.
*I also bet Akshay Bhatia at 120/1 back in December, but I wouldn’t advise a bet on him at 55/1-60/1, which is his current price.
