With the conclusion of the Florida Swing and just two weeks remaining until the Masters, the PGA Tour now shifts its focus to the west for the Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course. The long Par 70 track, which sits at 7,475 yards, has a unique layout, with five par 3s and three par 5s. The course features a modest 21 bunkers and only four water hazards, all changes made during the 2019 Brooks Koepka-led redesign. Its defense lies in the distinctive green complexes characterized by undulating surfaces and short-grass runoffs with false fronts. According to course superintendent Parker Henry, while everything is visible, the green complexes can be challenging if not approached accurately.
The course has historically played over par, emphasizing the need for a well-rounded game. The tournament’s move from fall to spring has significantly changed the course’s agronomy and how the field approaches the challenges of Memorial Park. The once bermudagrass-covered course now showcases Poa trivialis on the greens. Additionally, the rough has transitioned from penal 2.5″ Bermuda to a more manageable 1.25″ ryegrass.
This is a grip-it-and-rip-it course off the tee, and the penalty for missing the fairway should be severely reduced. We saw a spike in the average driving distance last season, up to 301.9 yards in 2024, after averaging around 287 during the previous two editions. Driver usage was at 82.9% last season, roughly 15% higher than the average PGA Tour event. We also saw 24.2% of the drives exceed 320 yards last season, up from 5.1% and 10.0% during the previous two events here.
Memorial Park offers a well-balanced mix of doglegs and straight holes, featuring a variety of distances across its layout. Lengthy holes are a prominent characteristic of the course. Three of the five par 3 holes exceed 200 yards, while eight par 4 holes measure over 440 yards. The course presents its challenges, with five par 4 holes playing over 490 yards and an average bogey or worse rate of 28.9%. Even the par 5 holes are demanding, including the 576-yard 16th hole, which has a Birdie or Better rate of only 22%.
Every approach shot at Memorial Park is tougher than the Tour average. The key challenge is landing your second shot in the right quadrant of the large sloping greens. With steep slopes and false fronts near the edges, hitting the wrong section makes it difficult to secure makeable birdie putts. Sometimes, missing the green on the correct side is preferable to hitting it and facing a long, complicated putt. The low greens in regulation rate, despite the large greens, bring around the green and lag putting into play this week.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Memorial Park Course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total (Last 18 Months, Very Difficult/Difficult/Average Scoring Conditions)
- SG: APP (Last 12 Months, Long and Very Long Courses)
- Carry Distance
- SG: ARG (Short Rough, Scrambling Short Grass)
- 3-Putt AVD 25+%
- SG: Total (Long and Very Long Course)
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Texas Children’s Houston Open Outright Targets
Davis Thompson (45/1)
Davis Thompson proved that form is fickle at The PLAYERS, posting an impressive T10 finish after back-to-back missed cuts at PGA National and Bay Hill. Thompson was about field average around the green, something he typically excels at, but otherwise, he gained throughout the bag. In fact, he’s sixth in this week’s field in scrambling from short grass/short rough over the past two years, a skill that’s required this week.
He won last year’s John Deere Classic after nearly winning the Rocket Mortgage the week before, but he’s played some of his best golf on tracks with difficult scoring conditions. He’s one of the best ‘total drivers’ on Tour, with above-average distance and accuracy. While accuracy isn’t required this week, it’s never a bad thing to have, particularly when it doesn’t come at the expense of distance.
Tony Finau (45/1)
Among the top 16 finishers in last year’s Texas Children’s Houston Open field, Tony Finau was the only golfer to lose strokes putting. And he didn’t just kind of lose strokes putting; he lost an average of 0.85 per round. Despite that, Finau finished at -11 in a tie for second place, just one stroke off Stephan Jaeger‘s winning score.
I’m not going to pretend that poor putting performances are an anomaly for Finau. He’s more than capable of putting himself out of tournaments at any point, but his ball-striking ceiling lives among the world’s elite. Finau won this event at Memorial Park back in 2022, back when it was played in November, gaining an average of 2.38 strokes per round ball-striking, a tick above his 2.0 mark last season. He clearly knows how to work his way around this place; it just comes down to whether or not he can make enough timely putts to keep himself in the mix.
Min Woo Lee (50/1)
The Golf Betting Community loves betting on Min Woo Lee, and I’m usually on the sidelines for it. He’s immensely talented but wildly unpredictable, from week to week and round by round. We’ve seen a bit more consistency from Min Woo in 2025, with his first missed cut of the calendar year coming at Bay Hill. Otherwise, he’s finished T20 or better in five of his seven starts, including a T20 finish in his most recent start at TPC Sawgrass.
His carry distance off the tee is a true weapon this week, and he’s played his best when the test is toughest, ranking 11th in SG: Total in difficult scoring conditions. He’s an effective scrambler, ranking 10th in this week’s field in SG: ARG over the past 12 months. Part of why I don’t typically chase the herd on popular Min Woo weeks is the price, but at 50/1, I’m willing to bite. He’s closer to 30/1 in the “Without Scheffler and McIlroy” markets if that’s your approach to the week.
Maverick McNealy (66/1)
The Florida swing rarely brings out Mav McNealy’s best golf, and that was the case again recently at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, where McNealy struggled and missed the cut. Prior to the Florida swing, Mav’s form was top-notch, with five T9 or better finishes over nine starts, including a win at the RSM Classic and a solo second-place finish at The Genesis (Torrey Pines).
He checks a lot of important boxes this week, including his performance on long and very long courses (fourth over the past 18 months), difficult and very difficult scoring conditions (third over the past 18 months), and his around-the-green game on courses with short rough (fifth in short grass scrambling over the past two years). He’s one of the best putters in the field on poa trivialis greens, so he’ll benefit from the agronomy changes that come with the move from November to March, but he was competitive in his previous starts here in the fall, finishing no worse than T27.
Max Greyserman (100/1)
This is a big number for Max Greyserman, who’s coming off an abysmal performance at his PLAYERS Championship debut the last time out. I’m throwing that out the window. Big picture, Greyserman needs to be consistent with his approach play if he’s going to take a step forward, but the rest of his game is perfectly suited for success at Memorial Park, where he finished T7 in his debut last season.
Greyserman’s distance will be an asset this week. He ranks eighth in this week’s field in driving distance over the past 12 months (min. 36 rounds played), and he’s played his best golf on longer courses, ranking 12th in SG: Total on long and very long courses over the past 18 months. When your irons aren’t crisp, you need an elite short game to survive, and Greyserman’s is top-notch. Over the past calendar year, he ranks seventh in this week’s field in SG: Short Game (a combination of around the green and putting). This bet is covering three places (E/W 1/5 3-places).
