The PGA Tour moves to the second event of the “Florida Swing” with this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Having hosted this event since 1979, it is one of the most respected courses in the Sunshine State. “Arnie’s Tournament” is a limited-field, “Signature” event played on one of the PGA Tour’s most demanding layouts.
Bay Hill is a classical Florida-style golf course characterized by its length, Bermuda grass, thick rough, firm, and fast greens, and numerous bunkers and water hazards. With windy conditions playing a factor, five of the last six winners have finished with a score of 12-under or worse. Par is an acceptable score on a majority of holes on a layout that plays as the second most difficult non-major test of golf on the PGA Tour.
“Tough”, “can’t fake it”, and “mentally challenging” are all phrases players themselves have used to describe Bay Hill. Course knowledge, total driving skills, long-iron accuracy, high ball flight into firm greens, and being able to scramble in thicker rough are all important qualities for success here. Justin Rose summed it up best by saying, “There’s really no way to fake it around Bay Hill. The rough’s pretty thick. Generally, the greens are quite firm which requires pinpoint iron shots. There’s enough trouble out there that mentally it’s a challenge. You have to really commit to shots.”
The Field
We are only two months into the calendar year and this is already the fourth Signature event. With world No. 2 Xander Schauffele finally returning from injury, all the big guns on the PGA Tour will be in attendance making this the strongest field of the year thus far. Other than Rasmus Hojgaard, every eligible golfer ranked in the OWGR top 50 will tee it up this week. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy lead the way with McIlroy having perhaps the best long-term course history of anyone at Bay Hill with eight top-13s in his ten career starts here. The defending champion, Scheffler is right on his heels with two wins and has the best actual strokes gained average per round at 2.86.
As one of the most predictive “course history” tracks on Tour, numerous players can boast stellar past performances here including Matt Fitzpatrick (six top-13s), Sungjae Im (six top-21s), Max Homa (four top-17s), and Chris Kirk (six top-16s). Along with Scheffler and McIlroy, Jason Day is the only other past winner in the field this week. The field is currently set at 72 golfers with the cut set at the low 50 and ties, or anyone within 10 shots of the lead.
Past Winners & Odds
Most Important Stats For Success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
*In order of importance
- SG: APP/Proximity 200+ yds
- Total Driving
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- BoB%
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 4 Scoring
- Course History
- Driving Distance
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Florida
- Event Season: Florida Swing
- Scoring Conditions: Very Difficult/Difficult
- Field Strength: Very Strong/Strong
- Course Length: Long
- Event Type: Small Field
- Bunkers: High
- Water Danger: High
- Greens Surface: Bermuda
- Green Speed: Fast
- Rough Surface: Ryegrass
- Rough Penalty: High
- Rough Length: Long
- Gain APP: Difficult (3rd most)
- Gain OTT: Difficult (5th most)
- Scrambling (Rough): Difficult (4th most)
- 3-Putt AVD: Difficult
- Par 3 Scoring: Difficult
- Par 4 Scoring: Difficult
API – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ErMqaT068ZgdP-GTuE0Hkvx1v-g84byBDWG-rZ01l0M/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- McIlroy +850 (2.8u) – MGM
- Matsuyama +2800 (0.85u) – Caesars
- Hovland +6000 (0.40u) – Rivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 5
- Scheffler -110 (2u) – Rivers
Top 20
- Matsuyama -110 (1.1u) – DK
- Thomas -110 (1.1u) – DK
- Im +130 (1u) – MGM
Top 30
- Scott +100 (1u) – DK
- Theegala +115 (1u) – DK
- C. Young +120 (1u) – DK
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images