The Florida swing continues at Bay Hill for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill offers a stern test of golf, and historically, the winner comes from near the top of the betting board. Bay Hill has signature event status once again, whittling the API field down to just 72 golfers, with the Friday cut set at the low 50 and ties, or as we saw during the Genesis Invitational, anyone within 10 shots of the lead.
Despite being a healthy 7,454 yards from the tips, Bay Hill plays even longer than the scorecard would indicate. Despite that, distance advantages off the tee are mitigated because of the multitude of forced layups and doglegs throughout. Forced layups off the tee create a ton of long approach shots, and this week’s field will face a higher rate of 200+ yard approach shots than nearly any other week this season.
Bay Hill is known for having some of the longest rough on the Tour each season, and the fairways often play firm and fast. The overseeded ryegrass rough is penal, meaning that golfers who miss the fairways and greens will frequently find themselves scrambling to make pars or avoid bogeys. It’s common for excellent tee shots to roll into the rough or, even worse, into the water.
The 2015 redesign brings water into play on 11 of the 18 holes. And then there’s the wind. It’s always a story at Bay Hill, so be sure to check back on Wednesday for an updated report. The most recent major change to the course occurred three years ago when most of the sloping runoff areas around the greens were replaced with thick, three-inch overseeded ryegrass rough. So, while around the green play will factor in because these green complexes are difficult to hold, Tour pros generally find it easier to navigate than shorter shaved runoffs into these fast Bermuda greens.
Success at Bay Hill largely depends on leaving the ball in the right spots, playing the correct angles, and maintaining patience. This is why course history is significant here. The best way to understand where to place the ball in the fairway and on the greens is to have prior experience in these conditions at Bay Hill. In fact, 16 of the past 19 winners had participated in at least three Arnold Palmer Invitationals.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Bay Hill stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total (Long and Very Long Courses + Difficult and Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
- SG: Ball-striking (Gaining on Approach and Off-the-tee, Difficult and Very Difficult)
- Hybrid Total Driving (75% Driving Distance/25% Distance from the edge of the fairway)
- SG: Bay Hill
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Targets
Rory McIlroy (+850, BetMGM)
I won’t hold Rory’s inability to lead his TGL Boston Common Frogs to the playoffs against him here. I like the combination of how his game fits Bay Hill, along with the subtle recent swing change that’s clearly resulting in improved iron play. McIlroy has made eight starts worldwide since last year’s Tour Championship. Only two of those starts saw him finish outside of the top four, and two of the eight (DP World Tour Championship and Pebble Beach) were wins.
McIlroy’s abysmal putting on the poa greens at Torrey Pines stands out as an outlier. Pre-Signature Events, Rory wouldn’t play much of the California swing for a reason. He much prefers the fast bermudagrass greens at Bay Hill, where he’s gained 0.46 strokes per round over the 40 career rounds he’s played at Arnie’s track.
His driver is such a weapon, with his near-peerless distance and above-average accuracy. Scottie Scheffler is the deserved favorite here as the clear top player in the world and winner of two of the past three Arnold Palmer Invitationals. Still, he doesn’t have twice the win equity of McIlroy, and that’s what these outright prices imply. I’ll back the top golfer on my Rabbit Hole model to win his second Signature Event of the season.
Ludvig Aberg (17/1, BetRivers)
My other pick to win is also a 2025 Signature Event winner. Ludvig Aberg isn’t in the Scheffler/McIlroy tier quite yet, but I think he’s the most likely player on the PGA Tour to crack into that upper echelon. He’s now seeing a lot of these courses for the second and third time, and we’ve seen how that experience matters with how he played down the stretch on Sunday at The Genesis.
Aberg is as skilled as anyone in the world, and his composure mid-round, along with the experience of his caddie, Joe Skovron, is a recipe for success. Aberg’s game fits any course, but he’s more likely to separate from the pack when the test is harder. The 25-year-old Swede is among the Tour leaders in driving distance, able to shape and control his ball flight off the tee. His approach numbers are dragged down by the four rounds he played while visibly ill at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach. He’s an elite long-iron player, and that comes into play often this week at Bay Hill.
Aberg, who now makes his home in Florida when he’s stateside, is also an elite putter on fast bermudagrass greens. Of all the golfers in the field who’ve played at least eight rounds at Bay Hill, Aberg’s 1.06 strokes gained per round putting is tops in the field. Overall, he’s ninth in this week’s field on fast bermudagrass greens. Aberg is also second in average apex height, a sneaky stat to consider this week because these firm greens are difficult to hold on approach shots, so Aberg’s combination of above-average distance and apex height is the ideal setup for what we want this week.
