After seven events out west, the PGA Tour makes a one-week stop south of the border before heading to Florida. This year’s Mexico Open makes its fourth straight appearance at Greg Norman’s “Signature Course” on the coast near Puerto Vallarta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort.
Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures 7,456 yards. It ranks as the 7th longest course on Tour. It is a unique track with five par-3s to go with four par-5s and only nine par-4s. While the par-3s are average in length, five of the par-4s are over 475 yards, and three of the par-5s are over 585 yards, making them the longest set of par-4 and par-5s on the PGA Tour.
I’m building a card around bombers this week with minimal rough, wide-open fairways and sticky Paspalum grass lining the course. Due to the length of this track, 42% of approaches come from over 200 yards, which is significantly higher than any other course on the Tour. This longer second shot distance results in fewer scoring looks, as the average proximity to the hole is nearly 44 feet, making it the farthest average proximity distance on any course last year.
The fairways here average 41 yards in width, making them the fifth widest on the Tour. Five holes present a water hazard off the tee, but only two have water that is close to the landing areas. Additionally, the non-penal rough and slower paspalum fairways provide an advantage to players with longer carry distances. Accuracy off the tee is very close to the Tour average, but it is less important since the rough has posed little threat in previous editions. It will be interesting to see if the extra inch of rough length (up to 2.5 from 1.5 in previous years) will change this dynamic.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, The Stadium Course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total, Course Length: Long and Very Long, Last 2 Years
- SG: Total, Scoring Conditions: Average, Easy, and Very Easy
- Carry Distance
- SG: Ball-striking, Off-the-tee club: Driver Heavy
- Proximity 200+ Yards
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Mexico Open Outright Targets
Stephan Jaeger (30/1, Caesars)
It’s been a bit of an uneven start to the 2025 season for Stephan Jaeger, but this is the right spot for him to get back on track. Jaeger posted T3 finishes at last year’s Farmers and here in Mexico before winning a few weeks later in Houston, holding off Tony Finau and Scottie Scheffler down the stretch to win his first PGA Tour event.
The summer wasn’t as kind to Jaeger, but he’s a strong fit for what this course demands. He’s among the top 20 in carry distance and ranks among the top 10 on long, easy, and driver-heavy courses. Jaeger has finished inside the top 20 in all three of his previous starts here, and I think this is the year he gets over the finish line.
Alex Smalley (50/1, FanDuel)
This is why I love the Rabbit Hole so much. I started my weekly research process with a handful of names in mind, but when I ran my first model of the week, Alex Smalley came out on top. Smalley’s finished T21 or better in three of his four starts this year and has the best history in this field on corollary courses similar to Vidanta.
Though not a bomber, Smalley’s distance is above average, and he’s a strong long-iron player as well, which is the true skeleton key to handicapping this week’s event.
Nicolai Hojgaard (55/1, BetRivers)
Two years ago, it was Nicolai, not his brother Rasmus, who earned his PGA Tour card first, parlaying that into an excellent showing for Europe in their 2023 Ryder Cup win. A strong showing at last year’s Farmers was later followed by a first-page-of-the-leaderboard Masters debut, which felt like a harbinger of things to come for the 23-year-old Dane.
But here we are, about 12 months later, and it’s Rasmus Hojgaard who’s sitting near the top of the odds board while Nicolai is buried among the afterthoughts. Rasmus deserves his spot, but the win equity gap between these twins is nowhere near the gap we’re looking at currently. Both are exceptionally long off the tee, and I love what we’ve seen from Nicolai when he’s played longer golf courses because his long-iron game is exceptional.
Michael Thorbjornsen (70/1, BetRivers)
This is the least surprising bet on my card for any of our Betsperts Golf subscribers. I’ve been on the young Massachusetts native early and often since he turned pro, and this is not the spot to hop off. In fact, if we’re just boiling the key stats of the week down to driving/carry distance, long-iron proximity, and the ability to make birdies in bunches, Thorbjornsen should be significantly higher up on the odds board.
The former top amateur in the world ranks second in carry distance and third in raw driving distance. He’s also fourth in proximity from 200+ yards and second in birdie or better rate over the past 12 months. This is the skill set of someone who’s built to compete at Vidanta Vallarta, and without any dominant forces at the top of the board, it’s an event ripe for picking.
Aldrich Potgieter (75/1, BetRivers)
Two big African amateur wins back in 2023 for the then-18-year-old Aldrich Potgieter earned him entries into that year’s Masters and U.S. Open. Since then, the now-20-year-old is a Korn Ferry Tour alum who’s shown tremendous upside against improving levels of competition. Potgieter made three DPWT starts this fall, finishing T8 at the Australian BMW and T2 at the Nedbank Golf Challenge two weeks later.
His best-in-the-field distance off the tee showed up at the Farmers a few weeks ago, where he found himself in the final group on Sunday before eventually fading with a Sunday 78. Learning how to close is a skill and definitely a concern in the short-term, but in a wide-open field where off-the-tee skills matter a lot, I’ll take a long-shot swing on a high-upside kid with a lot of game.
Antoine Rozner (90/1, FanDuel)
The Rabbit Hole isn’t going to do Antoine Rozner many favors because it’s PGA Tour data, and Rozner’s only played a handful of PGA Tour events over the past few seasons. Still, he’s a good fit for Vidanta Vallarta, and his recent form, with four T6 or better finishes in his past seven starts, is very encouraging.
Rozner’s irons have been at the heart of his recent strong finishes on the DPWT, and he’s comfortably above average in terms of distance off the tee. Overall, Rozner’s profile is a terrific fit for Vidanta Vallarta, but I wouldn’t mess around with T30 or T40 bets here. If he made the weekend, Rozner’s finishes are either inside the top 10 (8 in his past 25 starts) or barely inside the cut line.
Matti Schmid (125/1, BetRivers)
The start of the 2025 season hasn’t been nearly as kind to Matti Schmid as the swing season was, but this event certainly has a swing season feel to it, both in terms of the field and the setup. Schmid had a three-event run in October where he finished T16 (Sanderson Farms), 5th (Black Desert), and T3 (Shriners). His ball-striking was excellent, his putter got hot, and his above-average distance off the tee helped at each event.
He’s only made the cut once in four 2025 starts, a T25 at Farmers. He started the final round inside the top 10, but a final round 77 dropped him back. The expectations for anyone at 125/1 should be very low, but when looking at the names deep down the board, targeting golfers with Schmid’s skill set is the way to go.
