Coming off the heels of Thomas Detry’s masterful performance at the WM Phoenix Open, the Tour heads back to California for a “Signature” event, the Genesis Invitational, and the final event of the West Coast Swing. However, this will be no ordinary “Genesis” as the tournament was relocated from Riviera Country Club to the Torrey Pines South course following the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles.
It is a very unique situation to have a course host two different PGA events in a span of three weeks. This is the 100th year of the tournament, which debuted in 1926 as the Los Angeles Open at Los Angeles Country Club. It has been played at 11 courses throughout Los Angeles over the years, though it has been primarily played at Riviera Country Club since World War II. Riviera has hosted all but two years since 1973. In 1983, it was moved while Riviera prepared to host the PGA Championship. Similarly, it was moved in 1998 when the course prepared to host the U.S. Senior Open.
Host of multiple U.S. Opens (including in 2021), the Torrey Pines South course is spread out on land occupied by an anti-aircraft battery during World War II and is one of America’s most scenic course layouts atop coastal bluffs north of San Diego with dazzling views of the Pacific Ocean.
With the course sitting adjacent to the ocean, coastal weather effects often dramatically impact play. It is a massively lengthy track – the longest annual Tour course in the rotation – stretching over 7,700 yards. As was just witnessed a few weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open during Harris English’s victory at only 8-under par, the course provides a strong challenge and forces players to use every club in their bag. “Long and straight” is not only a description for most holes on the course but also the type of strategy needed for success.
Even though it’s played at sea level, Torrey Pines typically plays even longer than the scorecard yardage due to softer fairways and the cooler winter air. Winning scores at this course have been 15-under par or less in 13 of the past 14 tournaments played here.
It’s also a “sticky” course when looking at the type of players who have success. Par will be a good score on a majority of the holes. With it being such a long track, bombers have a definite advantage. Yet the winners’ list has also been filled with elite scramblers and Poa putting specialists. Ideally, players who are long and accurate off the tee and who also excel with their short game, particularly on Poa greens, have the best chance for success.
The Field
The Genesis is among five PGA Tour events designated as an “invitational”, with a reduced field. As a “Signature” event the field has been shrunk even more and currently sits at 72 golfers. It is comprised of the top 50 finishers from last year’s FedExCup Standings and then rounded out by the “Aon Next 10” from last fall along with the current “Aon Swing 5”. Sponsor exemptions include Min Woo Lee, Jordan Spieth, Gary Woodland, and Rickie Fowler. Even with a limited-size field, there is a cut this week with the top 50 players and ties and anyone within 10 shots of the lead making it through to the weekend.
46 of the top 50 players in the world golf rankings will be in attendance including Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Hideki Matsuyama. Despite reports of a possible return this week, world No. 2, Xander Schauffele needs more time to heal from a rib injury and will likely return during the “Florida swing”. Numerous golfers who just played here a few weeks ago return to Torrey Pines this week including Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im, and Keegan Bradley.
While not the best course for his legs due to its massive length, Tiger Woods surprised the golf world by announcing his full intention to compete this week at a place he has dominated over the past couple of decades.
Most Important Stats For Success at Torrey Pines
*In order of importance
- Scrambling/SG: ARG (Rough)
- Total Driving
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting (Poa)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Proximity 175+ yds
- SG: Torrey Pines Course History
- Rough Proximity 200+
- SG: Long and Difficult Courses
Unique Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: West
- Course Type: Coastal
- Scoring Conditions: Very Difficult
- Course Length: Very Long
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Event Season: West Coast
- Greens Surface: Poa
- Greens Speed: Fast
- Greens Size: Small
- OTT Club Type: Driver Heavy
- Rough Penalty: High
- Rough Length: Thick
- SG: OTT: Difficult
- GIR Accuracy: Difficult
- SG: Putting: Very Difficult
- 3-Putt AVD: Difficult
Weather Forecast – La Jolla, California
Genesis Invitational – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15zYgFsP6R11KLjLZUIiHfFWk0ZxGKSz7n6Wjx6W5ujM/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Matsuyama +2500 (0.96u) – MGM
- Pendrith +4000 (0.60u) – DK
- Hovland +6000 (0.40u) – Rivers
- MW Lee +6000 (0.40u) – FD
- An +9000 (0.26u) – Rivers
- Bhatia +9000 (0.26u) – Rivers
- Scott +9000 (0.26u) – FD
- Clark +10000 (0.24u) – FD
- Fitzpatrick +11000 (0.21u) – FD
Finishing Position Picks
Top 5
- Scheffler -+120 (1u) – Rivers
Top 10
- McIlroy -125 (2u) – Rivers
- Morikawa +163 (1u) – Rivers
Top 20
- Im +115 (1u) – DK
- Fleetwood +115 (1u) – DK
- Pendrith +130 (1u) – DK
Top 30
- Clark -106 (1.1u)
- Hovland -106 (1.1u)
- Bhatia +110 (1u)
- Scott +110 (1.5u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images