After a week in the Arizona desert, we’re back in California for this week’s Genesis Invitational. Unfortunately, Riviera Country Club is not on the menu this year due to the devastating January wildfires that destroyed a lot of the neighborhoods surrounding the course.
This year’s Genesis Invitational, a 72-man Signature Event field, will be played at Torrey Pines South, just three weeks after it hosted its annual event, The Farmers Insurance Open. This tournament will play all four rounds on Torrey Pines South, and there will be a cut, with the top 50 and ties, plus anyone within ten shots of the lead, seeing the weekend.
Over the past few seasons, the South Course has been the seventh-most difficult layout on the Tour, though it played even harder in January, with the scoring average at 73.67, 1.67 strokes over par. It offers no respite, requiring players to utilize every club in their bag. The South Course poses a significant challenge to the field with its long layout, narrow fairways, and 4-inch rough. At just 28 yards wide on average, the fairways are the fifth-narrowest on Tour, making distance and carry off the tee crucial, especially with the cooler mid-February air. Even though we see driver usage about 10% higher here versus the Tour average, the field averages only 293 yards in driving distance. The course will likely play softer than it did last month, with rain in the Wednesday and Thursday forecast, so you’re not getting much rollout on these fairways and basically none at all in the rough.
Driving accuracy is challenging, with only a 52% success rate, but hitting fairways isn’t crucial for success on this course. Many players often end up in the rough, giving longer hitters an advantage with shorter iron shots to reach the greens. The South Course generates the highest number of approach shots from over 200 yards on Tour. Approximately 55% of second shots are taken from distances greater than 175 yards.
The thick rough and small undulating greens at Torrey Pines South make short-game skills and scrambling abilities crucial for gaining strokes. Most around-the-green shots come from the thick 4-inch rough. The South Course is the toughest on the PGA Tour for making putts within 5 to 15 feet —there are no easy shots here. The greens run about 12.5 on the stimpmeter, which is faster than average, presenting a challenge due to their slick Poa surfaces. This California Poa can be inconsistent, especially later in the day, making it a struggle for many players who aren’t used to it.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, The Stadium Course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total, Long and Very Long Course
- SG: Ball-striking, Long and Very Long Course, Thick rough
- SG: Total, Difficult and Very Difficult Scoring Conditions
- SG: APP, Long and Very Long Course, Small greens
- Total Driving Hybrid – Carry Distance + Distance from the edge of the fairway
- SG: Putting Mix (Fast Greens + Poa Annua Greens)
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines Outright Targets
Ludvig Aberg (25/1, FanDuel)
Ludvig Aberg fired an opening round 63 on the North Course to take the first-round lead at last month’s Farmers, but his inability to hold on to that lead during his three South Course rounds had a lot more to do with his health than his ball-striking. Aberg was visibly ill all weekend, and it was surprising that he didn’t withdraw from the event, all things considered. He returned the following week at Pebble Beach, but Aberg was still experiencing flu-like symptoms and decided to skip the weekend event at Pebble Beach after a poor opening-round showing.
Perhaps I’m jumping the gun here by assuming he’s back to full health, but I believe a bit of the unknown is baked into this number after Aberg was going off between 16 and 18/1 at Pebble Beach. Few golfers set up better off the tee this week than Aberg, who ranks third in my Hybrid Total Driving model this week, behind Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. While he doesn’t have nearly as many reps as Rory and Scottie, Aberg has played his best golf to date on the longest and toughest tracks, and Torrey South fits the mode.
Viktor Hovland (60/1, BetRivers)
When Viktor Hovland is rolling, there isn’t a course setup that doesn’t suit his game, but I was encouraged to see him play pretty well at Pebble Beach. Golfers like Hovland can separate from their peers when the test is toughest and when elite off-the-tee skills are required, and that’s what shows up in the data for Hovland, even through the funk of the 2024 season.
Hovland ranks among the top five to ten in this field in all of my key metrics this week. He plays well on long golf courses with thick rough, and difficult scoring conditions. His long iron approach game is as good as anyone not named Scottie Scheffler, and again, that’s held true through his relatively disappointing performance for most of 2024. I love this price because if Hovland gets off to a good start and is in contention early, I believe you’ll see his live odds reflect his past pedigree more than others in this price range.
Wyndham Clark (100/1, FanDuel)
These next two bets were just pure price plays for me. First up, Wyndham Clark. Your FRL last week fell back to the pack with a second-round 73, but Clark gets streaky, and it was good to see his irons show up last week after a poor showing at Pebble Beach the week before.
Clark’s distance off the tee will be helpful, given the expectation of soft conditions at the start of the tournament. He’s also a good putter on fast greens, which we’ll also have here. Clark finished 15th in my model this week, and he’s too good to be 100/1, regardless of the strength of this field.
Akshay Bhatia (100/1, FanDuel)
I can say the same for Akshay Bhatia; he’s too good to be 100/1, even though he doesn’t have Wyndham Clark’s resume. The next step in Bhatia’s development is playing well in tough conditions against the world’s best. He’s also been right around the field average in final-round scoring, and while that can be a bit noisy, I’d like to see him close a bit stronger than he has to date.
Akshay isn’t someone I’d classify as a bomber, but he’s competitive distance-wise and has played well on longer courses. He didn’t play in this year’s Farmers, but he finished T13 here last season and is a strong Poa putter, though the sample size is small.
