2025 WM Phoenix Open – Betting Preview

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Set in the Sonoran Desert and surrounded by the rugged McDowell Mountains, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Scottsdale for this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. Completed in 1986 and designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, TPC Scottsdale has hosted this event for the last 37 years.

The “People’s Open” is one of the most popular sporting events in the world, hosting around 750,000 spectators annually. Known for its raucous crowds, especially at the par-3 16th hole, this event has a unique atmosphere and often produces a dramatic finale. The scoring margin has been one stroke in 15 of the past 18 years with eight playoffs, including last year when Nick Taylor outlasted Charley Hoffman on the second playoff hole.

While there are plenty of scoring chances at TPC Scottsdale, the winning score has only reached 20-under par twice in the last 17 years. Over the past five years, scoring has averaged -0.82. Strong drivers of the ball have had great success here, including Scottie Scheffler (won twice), Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama (won twice), Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas.

Ball-striking and distance off the tee are also important, especially in the thinner air where all three par-5s are reachable and can be aggressively attacked to set up eagle and birdie chances which are vital to success. Past course history also matters as TPC Scottsdale is the fourth most predictive course based on past performance.

The Field

After three consecutive weeks of course rotations and pro-am set-ups, it’s back to normal tournament golf with a 132-player field and a cut after 36 holes with the top 65 and ties advancing to the weekend. Scheffler, The No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) will be going for his third WM Phoenix Open victory in the last four years. Other top-25 players in the field include Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, Sahith Theegala, Robert Macintyre, Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Sepp Straka, Sam Burns, Tom Kim, and Byeong Hun An.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Scottsdale

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Total Driving
Birdie or Better %
Par 4 Scoring
TPC Scottsdale Course History
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Bent)
SG: OTT
Good Drive %
Scrambling – Short Grass

Unique Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: West
Course Type: Desert
Scoring Conditions: Average
Water Danger: High
Course Length: Average
Elevation: High
Event Season: West Coast
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
Greens Speed: Fast
Greens Size: Large
OTT Club Type: Driver Heavy
Rough Penalty: Low
Scrambling Short Grass: Difficult

Weather Forecast – Scottsdale, Arizona

WM Phoenix Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/143G35AY-TzmAQ-WjxlMQvkMk2gCGKbfDd3d1Ss6DAlw/edit?usp=sharing