2024 RSM Classic – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour heads to the eastern seaboard bringing the tournament calendar to a close at the idyllic Sea Island Resort in St. Simons Island, Georgia. This week’s RSM Classic is the final regular event of the 2024 year, and after its conclusion, the top 125 in the FedExCup standings going into next year will be finalized.

The RSM Classic has produced numerous longshot champions over the years including the likes of Robert Streb (twice), Tyler Duncan, and Austin Cook. Last year, Ludvig Aberg torched the field and the course finishing at a record 29-under. Each winner here has a similar recipe for success – hit fairways, attack pins on approach, and get hot on the greens.

As is the case with most coastal courses, the strength of the wind is the X-factor. Yet even with numerous “windy” rounds, over the 14 events played here, the average winning score has been 19-under par. The data shows that the Seaside and Plantation courses used in this event are among the easiest played on Tour in numerous statistical categories.

With daylight at a premium in mid-November, this event is still able to pack a full field of 156 thanks to the use of the two courses. Golfers will play both the Sea Island and Plantation courses one time before the 36-hole cut takes place with the top 65 and ties advancing on to play the weekend solely on the Seaside course.

The Field

In what is typically a weak-field event here on St. Simons Island, this final event of the year has an actual legitimate field with 10 players ranked in the top-50 of the Official World Golf Rankings. Headliners include defending champion Ludvig Aberg, Brian Harman, Denny McCarthy, Austin Eckroat, Sepp Straka, Davis Thompson and J.T. Poston. Other interesting names in the field include Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke Clanton, Eric Cole, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Keith Mitchell, Jake Knapp, Harris English, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, and recent “Fall Swing” winners Nico Echavarria, Kevin Yu, Matt McCarty, Patton Kizzire, and Rafael Campos.

The top 125 players in the FedExCup Fall standings after this week will secure their 2025 Tour membership, earning spots in each full-field Event along with THE PLAYERS Championship. Those who finish ranked 51-60 will get into the first two “Signature Events” in 2025.

The RSM Classic has provided some memorable finishes as four of the last eight editions have gone to a playoff. One of the ironies of this event is that first-time Tour winners have had more success at Sea Island than the locals who call this course their home – none of whom have actually won the RSM Classic. Numerous members of the “Sea Island Mafia” will tee it up once again this week on their home course hoping for better results including J.T. Poston, Brian Harman, Harris English, Patton Kizzire, Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, and Greyson Sigg.

Most Important Stats For Success at Sea Island GC

*In order of importance

SG: Putting (Bermuda)
SG: Coastal Courses/Windy Conditions
SG: Approach
Par 4 Birdie or Better
SG: OTT – Less Than Driver
Birdie or Better %
Bogeys Avoided
SG: Easy Scoring
SG: Short Courses
Proximity 75-150 yds

Weather Forecast – St. Simons Island, Georgia

RSM Classic – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u1Udk5r3Fb73p7iN-8SBTuOEhoS3eg26YEw20TtHa0A/edit?usp=sharing