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3M Open Underdog Plays – Round 1
TPC Twin Cities has a bit more teeth than its midwest counterparts like Detroit and TPC Deere Run, mostly due to the water lurking around most of the landing zones off the tee. Also, they’ve set it up to play easier as the week goes on, with the first round playing as the most difficult round relative to par in four of the past five years.
We might get a birdie fest on the weekend, but there are bogeys to be found out there. I used the Rabbit Hole to look at birdie or better and bogey avoidance rates over the past six months, along with each golfer’s distance from the edge of the fairway rankings and overall performance on courses with high water danger.
Adam Hadwin – 2.5 Bogeys or Worse – HIGHER
Adam Hadwin ranks 126th in this week’s field in bogey avoidance over the past six months at 18%. He’s been playing about a half-stroke below his baseline over the past 50 rounds and is coming off of a missed cut at last week’s Open Championship, and he missed the cut here last year as well.
Emiliano Grillo – 2.0 Bogeys or Worse – HIGHER
Grillo has a solid history here, but I’ll always take baseline skill and form over course history. After a decent string of results in the spring, Grillo has been scuffling a bit. He’s 121st in this field in bogey avoidance (17.7%) and 136th in birdie or better rate over the past six months. Overall, Grillo is losing 0.56 strokes per round over his past 50 rounds played.
J.T. Poston – 2.0 Bogeys or Worse – HIGHER
The Postman’s triple-bogey 8 on the par-5 18th during last year’s final round shows what can happen around here if tee shots are missed. I was surprised to see J.T. Poston’s bogey rate (17.8%) in the same range as Hadwin and Grillo. He’s another course history darling, so this won’t be a popular look, but I think it’s the right side. Over the past three years, Poston ranks 101st in this week’s field in strokes gained ball-striking when the threat of water danger is high.
Patrick Rodgers – 4.5 Birdies or Better – LOWER
Patrick Rodgers is an excellent putter, but his current approach form is pretty terrible. He’s losing almost half a stroke per round on approach over his past 50 rounds, and that’s ballooned out to -0.68 strokes over his past 12 rounds. He went under this mark in three of his four rounds here last season, and he’ll need to bury a few long putts to beat us here, given how poor he’s striking his irons.
Ben Griffin – 4.5 Birdies or Better – HIGHER
The general sentiment of the card is negative (more bogeys, fewer birdies), and the pricing algorithm picks up on that, so adding a positive look helps increase the payout price for this play. I’m high on Ben Griffin this week. His approach numbers rank out near the top of this week’s field regardless of the sample size, but he’s been at his best when the scoring conditions are a bit easier, and that’s what we have this week. He’s an outstanding putter, especially on bentgrass greens, ranking fifth in this week’s field in bentgrass putting over the past 18 months.
