2024 3M Open - Betting Preview

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Coming off a second major victory of the year by Xander Schauffele at the 152nd Open Championship, the PGA Tour heads back stateside for the inevitable post-major letdown and the 3M Open held at TPC Twin Cities. Designed by the legendary golfer and architect Arnold Palmer, the course was laid out on a 235-acre tract of property on the site of a former sod farm in the Minneapolis suburb of Blaine, Minnesota.

After two straight events on links-style courses, the 3M Open also signals a return to the familiar confines of parkland-style golf. But TPC Twin Cities is not your typical parkland course. With 27 different bodies of water spread throughout the property, along with a full-sized housing development, it displays as more of a “Florida” course than one in the upper Midwest.

While TPC Twin Cities has one of the highest birdie rates on Tour it also has one of the highest “double-bogey or worse” rates as the multitude of water hazards and thick rough present a challenge to those not in good form. This course also contains numerous “risk-reward” holes that provide excitement and a challenging final stretch of holes that will ensure no lead is safe on Sunday.

With it being the ninth longest course on Tour combined with the premium placed on accuracy off the tee thanks to nine different holes with water near the landing zone, players strong in Total Driving will have a huge edge. This is evidenced by three excellent drivers off the tee among the past winners in Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, and Matt Wolff. When adding the importance of gaining strokes on approach into the mix, TPC Twin Cities rates as one of the most ball-striking heavy courses on Tour with 59% of total strokes gained coming in this category.

2020 winner, Michael Thompson summed up the mental aspect of TPC Twin Cities quite well. “It is very much like PGA National. You know what shots you have to hit. There’s no if, and or but about it, you’ve just got to step up and hit the shot, and execute. If you’re not confident over the ball, you’re more likely to make a poor swing, which is going to result in a penalty. So you have to be really diligent with your visualizations, your commitment to each shot, pick your target, and trust it.”

The Field

The week after a major typically tends to struggle to attract big names. For this week’s 3M Open, 10 of the top 50 and 41 of the top 100 players in the world are in attendance. There is a small upper tier of players headlined by Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Akshay Bhatia, and Sam Burns. There is some quality depth in the field this week compared to other editions of the 3M with players like Cameron Davis, Tom Hoge, Emiliano Grillo, Billy Horschel, J.T. Poston, Aaron Rai, Adam Hadwin, and last year’s winner, Lee Hodges.

As we head down the final stretch of the season and the typical weaker fields that come along with it, there is still a massive amount of FedEx Cup points on the line. Motivation becomes a real intangible this time of year as many players will try to qualify or better their position with just two events remaining before the FedExCup Playoffs begin.

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Twin Cities

*In order of importance

Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF)
SG: Approach
SG: Ball Striking (high water danger)
Bogey/Double-Bogey Avoidance
Good Drive %
Proximity 175+
Birdie or Better %
Par 4 Scoring
Total Driving
SG: Easy Scoring Courses

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Midwest
Scoring Conditions: Easy
Course Length: Long
Field Strength: Weak
Field Size: Full Field
Water Danger: High
Greens Surface: Bent
Rough Length: Long
Rough Surface: Bluegrass
Architect: Arnold Palmer
OTT Club Type: Driver Heavy
Missed Fairway Penalty: High
Fairway Accuracy: Easy
GIR Accuracy: Easy
Gain Putting: Very Easy

Weather Forecast – Blaine, Minnesota

3M Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J5IkUck9aOS8D4-9YS7A9BhB_dY4iAh0JVp2EmNtX6s/edit?usp=sharing