2024 Open Championship - Betting Preview

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Golf’s oldest major championship returns for the 10th time to the seaside town of Troon on the western coast of Scotland. Located in the South Ayrshire region, roughly 30 miles southwest of Glasgow, Royal Troon Golf Club will host the 152nd Open Championship.

With a reputation as one of Scotland’s greatest links courses, it will provide a challenging tee-to-green test. It most recently staged the Open Championship in 2016, when Henrik Stenson outdueled Phil Mickelson down the closing stretch. Stenson joined Johnny Miller as the only player to shoot 63 in the final round to win a major. He beat Mickelson by three strokes. No one else was closer than 11. This time around, the par-71 layout has been extended to 7,385 yards and will play close to 200 yards farther than it did eight years ago.

Designed in the traditional out-and-back manner of the Old Course at St Andrews, Troon’s test begins with a gentle opening through some of the most striking links terrain to be found at any of the Open venues. The front nine typically plays downwind and provides plenty of birdie opportunities. Mostly into the wind, the back nine is as tough as any finish in the world.

Last year, Brian Harman captured his first major by building a five-shot lead at Royal Liverpool and closed with a 1-under 70 for a six-shot victory. He never trailed over his final 51 holes. Harman epitomizes the nature of the Open Championship. You can’t fake it around an Open course. Whoever is playing the best will win – longshots included – and they may even run away with it as Harman did.

Elite players have raised the Claret Jug at Royal Troon like Stenson, Arnold Palmer (1962), and Tom Watson (1982). But there have also been random champions like Todd Hamilton (2004), Justin Leonard (1995), and Mark Calcavecchia (1995). It’s the variables of wind, weather, undulating terrain, and unpredictable lies that make the Open so enjoyable to watch and which frequently seem to leave the door open for an unexpected champion.

The Field

After this week’s Genesis Scottish Open, 158 players have qualified for the event, with three past champions (Ben Curtis, David Duval and Paul Lawrie) electing not to play. This exceeds the usual 156-player field which hasn’t happened since 1995 at St. Andrews. If any players withdraw in the next few days, no alternates will replace them.

After a four-week layoff, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler eyes his seventh PGA victory of 2024. He is the first player with six wins before July since Arnold Palmer in 1962. World No. 2 Rory McIlroy will try to rebound from his collapse at last month’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst where he was the runner-up to Bryson DeChambeau by one stroke after two bogeys in his last three holes. His major drought reaches back to 2014. As for DeChambeau, he has yet to find the formula for mastering links golf with only one top-30 finish in nine career events on links courses.

As would be expected in a major championship, the depth of the field is terrific. From recent major winners like Harman, Xander Schauffele, and Wyndham Clark to past Open Championship victors in Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Shane Lowry, Jordan Spieth, and Louis Oosthuizen, every player in the top-50 of the world rankings will be in attendance except for Cam Davis (who broke into the top-50 after the qualification deadline).

Similar to the U.S. Open, its British counterpart is comprised of a mix of tour pros and amateurs fully exempt into the championship from past performances and players who earn invitations via various qualifying events during the course of the year. Additionally, 16 spots were reserved for players who compete in 36-hole qualifying events at four local courses on July 2.

As for LIV Golf, 17 players are in the field, highlighted by DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, and Joaquin Niemann. Of course, the two runaway trains of the last Open at Troon, Stenson and Mickelson, will make their return as well. Numerous DP World Tour regulars like Sebastian Soderberg and Rasmus Hojgaard, who are in the top-30 “Race To Dubai” rankings have also gained entry into this week’s field.

Other past champions in the field include Tiger Woods, Francesco Molinari, Padraig Harrington, Ernie Els, Darren Clarke, Stewart Cink, and John Daly.

Past Winners/Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at Royal Troon

*In order of importance

SG: Approach (Difficult APP Courses)
Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF)
SG: Total – Difficult Scoring/Majors
SG: OTT – High “Missed Fairway Penalty”
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring)
Sand Saves
SG: Open Championship/Links Courses
SG: Putting (Slow Greens)
Good Drive % (Difficult APP Courses)

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: UK/Ireland
Course Type: Links
Scoring Conditions: Very Difficult
Field Strength: Very Strong
Event Type: Major
Greens Surface: Native
Greens Size: Small
Greens Speed: Slow
Rough Length: Long
Gain OTT: Difficult
OTT Club: Less than Driver
Missed Fairway Penalty: High
Gain APP: Very Difficult
Par 3/4 Scoring: Difficult
Sand Saves: Difficult
Wind: Windy (19+ mph)

Weather Forecast – Troon, Scotland

Open Championship – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15hSLYkdXlvQpcntq8eYs55gTN1L6XSmy15oLr6dBQZk/edit?usp=sharing