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The Open Championship Underdog Plays – Round 1
We’re flying blind a bit here this week because we have less hole-by-hole data than a standard event. The lack of shotlink data makes it a bit harder, but I think there’ll be weather and wave opportunities once the week progresses.
Tony Finau – 3.5 Birdies or Better – HIGHER
I’m in on Big Tone this week. His short game has been excellent of late, and his track record at links courses is quite promising. He finished 18th in his first appearance at the Open, here at Royal Troon in 2016. Additionally, he finished ninth at Carnoustie, third at Royal Portrush, and T15 at Royal St. George’s. I also used the Rabbit Hole to look at who’s performed best when the wind gusts kick up (19+ MPH), and over the past three years, Finau ranks first in SG: Windy.
Dustin Johnson – 21.55 Fantasy Points – LOWER
Remember prime DJ? That was cool.
We haven’t seen that guy in a few years, and I don’t expect him to magically appear this week. He’s missed the cut in two of the three majors this season, and his bogey avoidance rate is north of 22%. He feels like a non-factor once again.
Will Zalatoris – 3.5 Bogeys or Worse – HIGHER
It’s been a disappointing few months for Zalatoris, who looked to be back to his old form after strong showings at Riviera and Bay Hill in the spring. He hasn’t finished inside the top 40 since the Masters, which is wild to think about. He’s been one of the best ball-strikers on Tour since his debut, but he’s losing 0.27 strokes per round over his past 24. Royal Troon isn’t the place to find your form.
Justin Rose – 21.55 Fantasy Points – LOWER
It’s been a bad run of golf for Rosey, who’s missed the cut in three of his past four starts, and his ‘made cut’ was a T68 at the Travelers, which was a no-cut event. He’s losing strokes across all strokes gained categories over the past 12, 24, and 50 rounds.
Sahith Theegala – 22.05 Fantasy Points – HIGHER
Sahith is a rollercoaster ride, but his upside is well within reach this week after a T4 showing at last week’s Scottish Open. Theegala gained 1.23 strokes per round on the greens, and his ball-striking numbers have been more consistent as the season progressed. His ability to pour in birdies helps here, and our projections have him at 27.7 fantasy points for Round 1.
