After a thrilling U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 that saw Bryson DeChambeau hold off Rory McIlroy on the final hole, the Tour heads to the Northeast and back to familiar territory for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut. One of the most favored tournaments by players, caddies, and fans, its huge crowds make it the second-most attended Tour event behind only the Waste Management Open. The Travelers is a “signature” event for the second consecutive year, and this time will not have a cut while featuring 71 of the best players on the Tour.
TPC River Highlands is a classical, tree-lined par-70 Pete Dye design where shot-shaping is almost required and players are encouraged to get creative and utilize every club in their bag. It is very scoreable yet will challenge players simultaneously thanks to its penal rough, challenging pin placements on small tiered greens, and subtle changes in direction. Players who are accurate with their position off the tee, who can separate from the field with their wedges and short irons, and who can get on a roll with the putter have the best chance for success. 2019 winner, Chez Reavie summed up the course quite succinctly. “You can shape it both ways off the tee – hit every club in your bag from longer irons to short irons. It’s just a test of all your shots.”
The average winning score since 2010 has been 16-under par and has included a wide range of golfers. There has, however, been a recent trend of more quality, upper-tier players winning this event. The average odds of the last nine winners is +3800 and includes elite players such as Xander Schauffele, Bubba Watson (twice), Jordan Spieth, and Dustin Johnson. Thanks to its tremendous finishing stretch of holes, it regularly delivers a climactic ending with 14 of the last 20 events being decided by one shot or less. Last year, Keegan Bradley torched the course, finishing at 23-under and leading Tour officials to “toughen” up the layout this year.
The Field
With this being the third straight tournament as either a signature event or a major, fatigue may become a factor at TPC River Highlands this week. This is especially true when considering the mentally taxing courses and difficult scoring conditions of Muirfield Village and Pinehurst. It will be an intriguing week to see how these elite players will respond following the intensity of the past two weeks. For now, every eligible player in the top 35 of the OWGR will be in attendance.
The headliners will once again include the top names – Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, and Collin Morikawa. Past winners, Schauffele, Harris English, Jordan Spieth, and New England’s own, Keegan Bradley all return to tee it up this week in Cromwell. After missing two shorts putts and blowing a two-shot lead down the stretch, Rory McIlroy has chosen to skip this event and will sit out until the Scottish Open in a few weeks. He is the only eligible player choosing not to participate this week.
Past Winners/Odds
Betting Thoughts
With such a variety of playing styles represented in past champions at TPC River Highlands, handicapping this tournament is always a challenge. Not only do we see all types of players near the top of the leaderboard in years past, but it is also the third-shortest course on Tour. These facts allow almost every player in the field who can find a hot putter to have a fighting chance. Adding to the unpredictability of the week is that this is a “Signature” no-cut event with most of the elite players on Tour in attendance. Some might say I took the easy way out by once again jumping on Scottie Scheffler as my only outright. But this was a two-week experiment, and I fully expect him to bounce back on a much more predictable course. In my opinion, getting him at +550 on BetRivers earlier in the week in a small field is a great price.
Let me also say that when you guarantee the best players four rounds, even with poor incoming form or a bad round mixed in, the cream typically rises to the top. For example, a struggling Cameron Young, who is also not a great fit for this course, still has the upside and floor (because of his level of talent) to outscore someone like Christiaan Bezuidenhout who has been playing terrific and who fits the course.
A variety of splits were built into the model this week to try to identify the players with the highest chance for success. The “Rabbit Hole” allows anyone to build a group of comparable courses that are similar to TPC River Highlands in course length, fairway structure (tree-lined with 8 doglegs), and overall scoring and birdie rate. Along with analyzing course history from TPC River Highlands, this is a great way to get an idea of who should fit this course well.
Off the tee (OTT) weighs in as slightly more important than previously this week with some of the changes that were made to increase the risk for aggressive driving. The penalty for missing fairways is very high. Players who can add distance to accuracy will have nothing but wedges into greens that are known for having tricky pin positions. One of the main splits in the OTT model for the week is past SG: OTT performance on the other “Less Than Driver” courses that are also short in length. While some players will choose a bomb and gauge approach and gain strokes off the tee that way, others will gain strokes by staying out of the rough and choosing to position themselves by clubbing down.
One of the main keys to success this week is wedge play from inside of 150 yards. In fact, over 70% of approaches will come from inside of 175 yards, the highest rate on Tour. Having the ability to control wedges into some of these tucked pin positions to set up shorter birdie chances is paramount this week. Here are the best and worst players in SG per shot from inside of 150 yards from both the fairway and rough since the start of 2024.
A few other stats that had higher weights this week are Birdie or Better % and Bogey Avoidance on easier scoring courses. With only two par 5s on which to score and 12 par 4s, par 4 scoring will also be vital this week. Finally, with so many low individual scores posted over the years, players who can put themselves in position on approach to make birdie putts can separate themselves from the field. Consistent putters, especially from the 5-20 foot range are extremely important this week at a course where the winning score will most likely be around 20-under. This is why I believe players who have both a strong wedge-game and can putt have the best chance to contend. This list includes players like Russell Henley, Sam Burns, Denny McCarthy, Ludvig Aberg, and Chris Kirk.
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC River Highlands
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach (75-150 yds)
- SG: Putting (Bentgrass – Bent/Poa)
- Par 4 Scoring
- SG: OTT (Less than driver courses)
- BoB% (easier scoring courses)
- Bogey AVD (easier scoring courses)
- SG: ARG
- SG: TPC River Highlands/Comp Courses
- Scrambling – Rough
- Distance From Edge of Fairway
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Northeast
- Course Length: Very Short
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Field Size: Small Field
- Par: 70
- Event Type: No Cut
- Greens Surface: Bent/Poa
- Green Size: Small
- Rough Surface: Bluegrass
- Rough Length: Long
- Architect: Pete Dye
- OTT Club Type: Less than Driver
- Missed Fairway Penalty: High
- Rough Penalty: High
- GAIN ARG: Very Difficult
- Scrambling – Rough: Difficult
Weather Forecast – Cromwell, Connecticut
Travelers Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T5H8aACx0PdkyHT5PustpLrWxb27hNQojbkyPqcG5B8/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Scottie Scheffler +550 (4u) – Rivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Collin Morikawa +120 (1u) – Rivers
- Ludvig Aberg +150 (1u) – Rivers
- Patrick Cantlay +190 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 20 – all DraftKings
- Russell Henley -120 (1.2u)
- Tommy Fleetwood -110 (1.1u)
- Brian Harman +120 (1u)
- Tom Kim +125 (1u)
Top 30 – all DraftKings
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout -110 (1.1u)
- J.T. Poston +100 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images