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U.S. Open Underdog Plays – Round 1
I think we have multiple edges to attack for this year’s U.S. Open. First is Par-3 scoring. Last time we were here, all four Par 3’s had a scoring average above par for the week and for each round. The Par 3 6th hole was the toughest hole on the course and had at least a 33% bogey rate in all four rounds. The hole was played 446 times, and surrendered 12 birdies (2.7% birdie rate).
I also think we’ll see a lot of fairways hit, with golfers clubbing down at times to ensure that they stay out of the wiregrass and native sand areas lining the fairways. Even so, the effective green size here is far less than the 6,800 sq. ft listing. According to the USGA, only about 2,500-3,000 sq. ft of each green can receive a pin placement, meaning that approach shot target areas are very small. I’d expect the Greens in Regulation rate to be quite low, as golfers have been vocal about ensuring that they leave themselves in the proper spot versus attacking pins or firing at the center of the green.
