2024 Charles Schwab Challenge - Betting Preview

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After a scintillating PGA Championship that saw Xander Schauffele finally win his first career major, the Tour heads south to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge played at the legendary Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth.

Though the event’s name has changed numerous times, Colonial CC has hosted this tournament since 1946, making it the longest-running event on the PGA Tour held at the same location. From its beginning, the tournament has seen the most illustrious names in golf among its champions, including Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, and Tom Watson. Colonial is one of those rare gems that has stood the test of time, challenging the world’s best golfers year after year.

While Colonial’s storied past speaks for itself, much has changed since it hosted the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge. The course that Marvin Leonard opened in 1936 has undergone an extensive makeover as renowned architects Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner embarked on the most significant renovation project in its history. The goal was to modernize the course in different ways and restore it as much as possible back to its original form. Hanse says the objective is getting the course back to something that looks as if it’s “been there forever.” “It will still be the revered Colonial course we are all familiar with seeing and playing, but the Hanse work will improve, update, and maximize the legendary course and routing”, said Colonial’s general manager Frank Cordeiro.

Colonial CC is a challenging tree-lined shot-makers course with tight fairways, numerous doglegs, and small greens. It is perhaps the PGA Tour’s quintessential positional course that places a premium on accuracy off the tee and on approach. Ball-strikers with past success on “less than driver” courses, who can be creative and shape their shots, and spike with the putter on the bentgrass greens will have an advantage. Jordan Spieth, perhaps, summed up Colonial best by saying, “Fit it into tight windows, hit fairways, and control the ball on the green.”

With an average winning score of 13-under over the last dozen years, the list of recent past champions here is full of quality ball-strikers who can roll the rock including Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, and Zach Johnson. Two of the last three winners, Sam Burns and Jason Kokrak took a more aggressive route off the tee by hitting driver at a 72% clip as compared to the field average of 58%. One thing both have in common with the previous group – both were among the best putters on Tour. While last year’s winner, Emiliano Grillo only hit driver 46% of the time, he followed the same approach-putting combination, gaining 4.7 strokes on approach and ranking second on the greens gaining 7.4 strokes with his flatstick.

The Field

The week after a major notwithstanding, along with the fact that it is not a “Signature” event, there is a sneaky-strong field at this week’s edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge with 11 of the top 30 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings in attendance.

Fresh off a stint in a Louisville jail cell, the field is headlined by world No. 1 and local Dallas resident Scottie Scheffler. Colonial’s most consistent contender, and another local, Jordan Spieth returns for the 12th consecutive year where he has ten top-14 finishes, including a win in 2016. Max Homa, Brian Harman, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, and Keegan Bradley round out the list of elite players teeing it up this week. Other past champions in the field are Emiliano Grillo, Daniel Berger, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Zach Johnson, Chris Kirk, and Rory Sabbatini.

With the Charles Schwab Challenge being an invitational event, there will only be 132 players in the field with the top-65 and ties making it through the cut-line. One of the storylines to follow is how golfers perform this week who were either in contention or who struggled at last week’s PGA Championship.

Past Winners/Odds

Betting Thoughts

With Colonial Country Club being a regular stop on Tour for over 70 years, we have a lot of course data to work with this week. As noted above, there is one major caveat – the course may play very differently this week. Some golfers feel it will play easier this year, while others believe that it will play tougher because of how firm the new greens are. Until we see the results from this year, take everything, including past course history, with a grain of salt. That being said, Colonial’s routing and positional nature should remain the same.

As far as the type of players we should be targeting this week based on the data, it all starts with keeping your ball in the fairway and with the proper approach angle into these small greens. Shorter, accurate players off the tee who are consistent putters have had the most success here. Former winners like Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Na, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger and Kevin Kisner highlight this fact.

It all starts off the tee at Colonial CC. Ben Hogan once said that a “straight ball will get you in more trouble at Colonial than any course I know.” With so many holes twisting in different directions, players who can shape the ball both ways off the tee will be rewarded. With a majority of the doglegs turning right to left, golfers who draw the ball will have an edge this week.

Because of the heavy volume of trees lining the fairways, along with the unpredictable 2.5″ Bermuda rough, it becomes a positional-based course where most players will club down off the tee and take less than driver. Distance off the tee is seven yards lower here than the average course. Those who find the rough or try to cut across the doglegs and fail will have to deal with plenty of tree-blocked approach shots. Fairway-finders playing “target golf” rule the day here at Colonial.

All that being said, it is important to note that some of the “bomber” types like Sam Burns and Jason Kokrak have demonstrated over the last couple of years that lines can be taken over the doglegs which allows for the longer hitters to hit over the top of the trees. While few winners over the last decade have ranked highly for the week off the tee, the 2021 winner, Kokrak, let the field OTT with 6.2 strokes gained.

Great iron players should also be targeted this week. 56% of approach shots come between 100-175 yards. I have also isolated two ranges of holes in the model this week. 36% of the holes on the course are between 400-450 yards. Also, each of the par-3s play at over 190 yards. With greens being smaller and than average and much firmer, combined with winds over 15 mph each day, accuracy on approach will be paramount.

The most important component to success at Colonial is simply hitting greens in regulation. Last year, it ranked as the ninth toughest course in which to gain strokes on approach. Players ranking high in Good Drive % combined with past approach performance on other small greens are ones that should rise up the leaderboard.

With only two par-5s on the course, I will be fading numerous players who tend to thrive on courses with four par-5s. K.H. Lee, Davis Thompson, and Joseph Bramlett are three examples of golfers in this field who typically score much higher than average on those types of holes. Any advantages certain players have related to distance, par-5 scoring, and approaches over 200 yards will be mitigated this week, and thus will rank lower in my model.

Most Important Stats For Success at Colonial Country Club

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF)
Good Drive %
SG: Par 4
Proximity 100-175 yds
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Less Than Driver Courses
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Scrambling
Birdie or Better %

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Texas
Scoring Conditions: Difficult
Course Length: Long
Greens Surface: Bent
Green Speed: Fast
Green Size: Small
Rough Surface: Bermuda
Rough Penalty: High
OTT Club: Less Than Driver
Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
Gain OTT: Very Difficult

Weather Forecast – Fort Worth, Texas

Charles Schwab Challenge – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13UHxoY4HPEQLiTNbT9UWe_tjWXztKZbC32KeDCtRMVk/edit?usp=sharing