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Charles Schwab Underdog Fantasy Pick ’em Plays – Round 1
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I think the two best statistical targets this week are Bogey or Worse (HIGHER) and Cumulative Par-5 strokes (LOWER). There aren’t many birdie holes at Colonial. Last year, 13 of the 18 holes were played to par or worse, with the average bogey or worse expectation at 3.18 per round last season.
One exception is the first hole, which is one of the two Par-5s on the course. The first hole scoring average is 4.32 over the past ten rounds, with a birdie or better rate of 44%. If you aren’t making a 4 on the first, you’re in for a long day at the office. The 11th hole plays harder, with a 27% birdie or better rate, with an average score hovering around 4.8. It’s not as cut and dry, but it’s still a hole where birdie is in play. With most of the field posted with a Cumulative Par-5 score of 9.5, this is an attackable line for the best birdie makers in this week’s field.
All five of these golfers, led by Scottie Scheffler, have a Par-5 birdie or better rate of at least 50%, ranking among the top third in this week’s field. I think you can pick on Bogey or Worse lines as well, especially those non-elite golfers posted at 2.5 or 3.
Cumulative Par-5 strokes – 9.5 (LOWER)
Scottie Scheffler
Jordan Spieth
Max Homa
Collin Morikawa
Si Woo Kim
