After watching the world’s best battle it out at Valhalla for the PGA Championship, a strong field heads down to Fort Worth, Texas, for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Though not a designated event, the field is still relatively strong, especially considering it’s the week after a major.
The PGA Tour has been coming to the legendary Colonial Country Club since 1946, and it’s held the test of time despite all the changes in the game. Precision is the name of the game, both off the tee and into these small bentgrass greens. Birdies are hard to come by, and historically, bombers have been forced to go less-than-driver more than most other tracks due to the many forced layups, doglegs, thick Bermuda rough, and tight tree-lined fairways.
We’ve seen an increase in driver usage off the tee over the past few years, a trend that will likely continue this week for some of the 132 golfers in the field. Not everyone has the apex and carry distance required to drive it over the trees to cut off the many doglegs at Colonial, but those who can likely continue to try. Regardless, as is often the case, approach play is paramount this week.
The course has undergone a significant renovation, with renowned architects Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner leading the extensive makeover. The goal was to modernize the course and restore it to its original form. Every aspect of the course infrastructure, including an irrigation system, bunkers, tees, and greens, was addressed. Many trees and bunkers were removed to create a more open and well-lit course. Additionally, most greens were lowered and made more receptive as targets. The renovation also included the incorporation of “barrancas,” or dry streambeds that channel water during heavy rain, on several holes. The biggest changes were made to holes eight and 13, both par 3s, but I don’t think it’ll play drastically different than years past.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Colonial:
Colonial Country Club is a par 70 course that measures 7,289 yards. It is an above-average-length classical course that has tree-lined fairways, numerous doglegs, and small green complexes. Cut through pecan, walnut, and oak trees, the course features very little sloping and elevation changes. Similar to a Donald Ross design, the routing of the course is very creative as players will tee off in a different direction after each hole. When the Texas winds start to blow, this can cause some challenging decisions on tee shots.
Colonial is one of the toughest courses to make birdies on Tour, and because it cannot be overpowered, it continues to challenge golfers year after year. It has the third-smallest average landing zones when combining fairway width (27.5 yards) and green size (5,000 square feet).
Overall, Colonial is the fifth toughest course on Tour to gain strokes off the tee. And because it also has the 4th narrowest fairways at an average of only 27.5 yards wide, it can’t be overpowered.
With tight fairways and tiny greens, Colonial is a course that will test a player’s ball-striking skills. With the 6th-smallest greens on Tour and the fifth most penal rough, there is a high emphasis on strong approach play with short to medium irons.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
My top 5 key stats this week:
- SG: APP
- Good Drive%
- SG: Ball-striking, less than driver
- SG: Total, Last 12 months, difficult scoring conditions
- Distance from the edge of the fairway
Scottie Scheffler is competing this week, which makes outright betting challenging. He hails from the Dallas/Fort Worth area and has finished in the top three at this event in the past two years. My strategy this week is to spread my bets across a wider-than-usual range of elite short-iron players who either have strong current form or exceptional track records at Colonial.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s Charles Schwab Outright Picks
Tom Hoge
Tom Hoge’s course history at Colonial doesn’t jump off the page, but he enters this year’s event in significantly better form than in years past. On the back of exceptional approach play, Hoge finished T23 at last week’s PGA Championship. No one in this year’s Charles Schwab field has been better from 100-150 yards out this season than Hoge (+0.109 strokes), which is noteworthy since nearly 34% of all approaches came from that range last season.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
This is the type of setup that fits Christiaan Bezuidenhout’s game well. He’s backed that up with a T15 and T21 showing at his past two Colonial starts, and he’s flashed at times in the past six months with six T10 or better finishes, including a T3 just three starts ago on the DP World Tour. Bez is also an exceptionally strong short-iron player, ranking third in the world in SG: APP from 100-150 out so far in 2024.
Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel posted a T8 at last week’s PGA Championship, his fifth T12 or better finish over his past nine starts, including his win in Puntacana last month. His ball-striking numbers are much closer to the golfer we’ve seen for most of the past decade, up drastically from last year’s bottoming-out performance. He’s familiar with this track, and he’s historically been a form golfer, so I want to jump on while his confidence is high.
Aaron Rai
My mother always told me to never trust a man who wears two black gloves to golf, but here we are. Rai’s approach game continues to get better and better each season, which is a great combination with his ability to consistently paint fairways off the tee. He finished T12 at Colonial last year in just his second appearance here, and he finished T39 last week at the PGA Championship after his T4 at Byron Nelson, so his current form is strong.
Keegan Bradley
Only Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, and Scottie Scheffler gained more strokes ball-striking last week than Keegan Bradley. He also hit more fairways than any of those elite golfers as well, which bodes well for his chances this week at Colonial. Really poor putting performances have been at the heart of his recent struggles, but he’s put together back-to-back field average performances on the greens. If he can carry over his recent form from last week, he’s incredibly mispriced at 70/1.
- To Win: 70/1 FanDuel
- Top 30: +130 DraftKings
Austin Eckroat
Last week’s T18 at the PGA Championship was Austin Eckroat’s third T18 or better in his past four starts. Eckroat’s win at PGA National back in March is encouraging because the scoring conditions are similar, as is the skill set required to win. Eckroat finished T16 in his debut at Colonial in 2023, and he’s in line for another T20 finish or better this week. I think he’ll close closer to 50 or 55 this week.
Andrew Putnam
Andrew Putnam’s game hasn’t changed much over the past handful of seasons. He’s accurate off the tee and possesses a consistently strong short game. He’s an above-average iron player, but he rarely gains off the tee, and his lack of distance limits his ceiling. He finished T3 here in 2019 and has other strong showings here since, which makes sense since he thrives on shorter approach shots compared to the 175-200+ yard range that we’ve seen often in the past handful of events. He’s been competitive at a few difficult stops with strong fields this season, including API (T8) and Harbour Town (T18). He’s unlikely to win, but if he ever does, it’ll be at a place like Colonial.