2024 PGA Championship – Betting Preview

Redefine the way you bet live with Rithmm AI Caddie. Dive into a new era of live betting, where every hole and every golfer is an opportunity, thanks to our AI’s 1,000 simulations per hole. Discover a smarter path to live betting success. Get a FREE 7-Day Trial today!

The 106th edition of the PGA Championship, the second major of the 2024 calendar, will be held at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky from May 16-19. Designed by all-time major champion Jack Nicklaus, Valhalla is ranked as the top course in Kentucky and is listed among “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” by Golf Digest. Valhalla has hosted three previous PGA Championships, two Senior PGA Championships, and the 2008 Ryder Cup.

f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b

Located just east of Louisville, Valhalla is a beautiful 486-acre property that features rolling terrain, narrow tree-lined fairways surrounded by penal rough, and tricky undulating greens. It’s a stern but fair test of golf that will challenge players in every area. While there are some definite scoring opportunities, poor shots will be punished.

Resembling the length of some of the most recent PGA Championship courses in Kiawah Island, Southern Hills, and Oak Hill, it’s a brute of a par-71 layout that measures 7,609 yards from the tips. It also boasts an impressive balance of scenic, risk/reward, and difficult holes. Gently meandering throughout the course is Floyd’s Fork, a stream that comes into play and forces strategic decisions on numerous occasions.

The last PGA Championship at Valhalla was in 2014 when Rory McIlroy held off Phil Mickelson by one stroke and won his second Wanamaker Trophy and fourth major overall. Mcllroy hasn’t won a major championship since. This was also the scene where Tiger Woods held off Boby May in a riveting three-hole playoff to claim the 2000 PGA Championship.

Last year, Brooks Koepka defeated both Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler by two strokes at Oak Hill for his third career PGA title while also becoming the first LIV golfer to win a major. At Valhalla, he is attempting to become the fourth golfer in history to win at least four PGA Championship titles.

The Field

It is seemingly said for every major, but the PGA Championship does have the strongest field, perhaps of all time. 99 of the top 100 players in the world rankings are in attendance at Valhalla. The 156-player field also features 16 players from the rival LIV Golf league including major championship stalwarts Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, and the defending PGA winner, Brooks Koepka. Others from LIV were granted exemptions including Talor Gooch, Joaquin Niemann, and Patrick Reed.

The main storyline is that three of the game’s biggest heavyweights, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka are each coming off victories in their most recent starts heading into this week. Scheffler is gunning for his second consecutive major after winning another Green Jacket last month and enters as the overwhelming favorite having had a couple of weeks away from the game after winning the RBC Heritage and coming off the birth of his first child. Not only did McIlroy win his second straight event at Quail Hollow last week, but he also crushed everyone, gaining 19.9 strokes on the field. And Koepka, who is perhaps the biggest game hunter of them all with five combined PGA/U.S. Open titles since 2017 won the most recent LIV event in Singapore.

There are plenty of other big names in the second-tier of favorites that are ready to contend including Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Ludvig Aberg, and Max Homa. Other past PGA champions in the field include Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Keegan Bradley, and Tiger Woods. Woods is a four-time winner of this event and is coming off his 24th consecutive made-cut at the Masters.

Past Winners/Odds

Betting Thoughts

The PGA of America continues to churn out U.S. Open style courses for many of the recent PGA Championships. Massive length. Thick rough. Small, speedy greens. Valhalla is a “big-boy” course that demands all-around play, but more specifically, driving distance, long-iron performance, and scrambling to save par will be vital.

When building my model and constructing my betting card for this week, distance off the tee was heavily weighted. While accuracy off the tee is vital, Valhalla is a massive course ranking as the fifth-longest track played on Tour since 2016. In 2014, 10 of the top 15 on the leaderboard also ranked inside the top 15 in driving distance for the week. On the tee box, Valhalla provides clearly defined targets and rewards powerful driving. Total drivers who can combine distance with accuracy will have a huge advantage this week and favor players like Scheffler, McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, and Min Woo Lee.

With fairways being soft from all the rain, the new Zoysia grass fairways will not have as much roll-out as anticipated. This makes “Carry Distance” even more important. Length OTT also allows players shorter irons into these small greens. I am also targeting elite long iron players as approach shots from 175+ yards will be very common on so many holes.

Using the “Rabbit Hole”, I have also targeted players with past success hitting out of thick rough which makes approach play very unpredictable. The Louisville area has seen a much warmer spring this year which has placed the course several weeks ahead of its normal growing patterns. This has resulted in even thicker rough than expected and further elevates the premium on both finding fairways and shot control.

Finally, I am also leaning heavily on past experience in difficult scoring conditions, long courses, and strong fields, including major events. All of this is accounted for in my official PGA Championship model which is displayed below.

Most Important Stats For Success at Valhalla

*In order of importance

Total Driving
SG: Approach
Driving Distance
SG: Total – Difficult Scoring/Majors
Proximity 175+ yards
SG: Putting (Fast Greens)
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Good Drive %
Par 4 Scoring (Difficult Par 4s)

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Southeast
Scoring Conditions: Difficult
Course Length: Very Long
Field Strength: Very Strong
Event Type: Major
Greens Surface: Bent
Green Speed: Fast
Green Size: Small
Fairway Surface: Zoysia
Rough Surface: Bluegrass
Rough Length: Long
OTT Club: Driver Heavy
Missed Fairway Penalty: High
Rough Penalty: High
Gain APP: Difficult
Par 4 Scoring: Difficult

Weather Forecast – Louisville, Kentucky

PGA Championship – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.