2024 CJ Byron Nelson – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour heads back to the Lone Star State for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and one of the final tune-ups before the season’s second major, the PGA Championship. Located within the community of Craig Ranch in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, Texas, TPC Craig Ranch is the host course for the fourth consecutive year. The event dates back to 1944, and in recent years has moved all over the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex with both Trinity Forest and the TPC Four Seasons Resort courses also hosting.

Featuring easy scoring conditions, few hazards, wide-open fairways, and large receptive greens, TPC Craig Ranch is a prototypical TPC course. It certainly fits the eyes of K.H. Lee who has won this event in two of the three years in which the tournament was held here. With an average winning score of 25-under par, it is a birdie-maker’s paradise that inevitably boils down to a putting contest. Along with “spike putting” ability, long-iron/wood approach play is the key “separator” when determining golfers to target this week.

The Field

Traditionally, the Byron Nelson has typically had a weak strength of field. That has only been amplified this year with the tournament being amid a six-week stretch that includes two “Signature” events and two majors. Jordan Spieth is the only top-20 player in attendance. Overall, 10 of the top 50 in the world rankings are in the field including last year’s winner, Jason Day, Tom Kim, Min Woo Lee, Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, and Si Woo Kim.

Numerous players with ties to the Dallas area appear here yearly, including Spieth, Tom Kim, K.H. Lee, Tom Hoge, and Ryan Palmer. With 500 FedEx Cup points, a $9.5 million purse, and the ability to play one’s way into next week’s “Signature” Wells Fargo event along with the PGA Championship on the line, there is plenty at stake this week.

Betting Thoughts

With Will Zalatoris withdrawing along with a lack of intriguing options at the top of the betting board, I have found the most outright value in the second and third tiers this week. Jordan Spieth has won twice in the past seven years. Jason Day is struggling mightily with his approach play. Alex Noren and Byeong Hun An have never won a PGA Tour event.

I’ve settled on the trio of Adam Scott (+2500), Tom Hoge (+3500), and Tom Kim (+4000) as my top options. Scott and Hoge are among the best at SG: APPUT which combines approach play and putting and is always one of the key metrics in tournaments that transform into putting contests. Tom Kim brings plenty of win equity and has been slowly turning his game around, gaining a combined seven strokes in approach and putting in his last start at the RBC Heritage.

Weak-field “birdie-fests” are also the best events to target mid-range players with upside and longshots. For this week, that would include players like Adam Schenk, Seamus Power, Peter Kuest, Daniel Berger, and Alejandro Tosti.

As for what it takes to have success at TPC Craig Ranch this week, players will face a lengthy course with wide fairways that don’t offer many hazards off the tee. The greens are large and very flat. As was the case for the first three events here, typically, easy-scoring courses that pose little threat off the tee are transformed into target practice on approach, followed by a putting contest. Birdie or Better %, par-5 scoring, average proximity to the hole, and past success in other “Weak Field” and “Easy Scoring” events are two other pieces of data that are important this week and are included in the final model posted below.

On approach, 36.4% of shots have come from 200+ yards. That is 10% more than the Tour average from that range. Not only is the Greens in Regulation rate 4% easier than average but the GIR rate when missing the fairway is one of the highest on Tour at 59% With the 12th largest greens, proximity to the hole numbers are a little further than normal, but the ease of putting on these greens cancels out that slight difficulty.

Because gaining strokes off the tee is so easy, it’s the definition of a second-shot course. Last year, TPC Craig Ranch was the second-easiest course to gain strokes on approach. Last year, half of the top 30 players on the leaderboard gained at least three strokes on approach. In 2022, eight of the top 11 in approach finished in the top-17 overall.

Similar to around-the-green play, putting on these smooth bentgrass greens was the third easiest to gain strokes on Tour. Everything from one-putt percentage to three-putt avoidance ranks as very easy. With so many players hitting greens at a high rate this will ultimately turn into a putting contest. While putting is uncomplicated here, targeting players who can get hot with their flat stick (especially on bentgrass greens) can be researched in the “Rabbit Hole” using the “Floor/Ceiling” filter.

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Craig Ranch

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Birdie or Better %
Proximity 200+
SG: Putting (Bent)
Par 4 BoB%
Par 5 BoB%
Driving Distance
SG: Easy Scoring Conditions
SG: Weak Field Events
SG: Long Courses

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Region: Texas
Scoring Conditions: Very Easy
Course Length: Long
Field Strength: Weak
Greens Surface: Bentgrass
Fairway Surface: Zoysia
Rough Surface: Bermuda
OTT Club: Driver Heavy
Missed Fwy Penalty: Low
Gain OTT/APP/ARG/PUTT: Very Easy

Weather Forecast – McKinney, Texas

CJ Byron Nelson – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.