The PGA Tour heads down to Bayou Country just southwest of New Orleans for a unique team event at TPC Louisiana known as the Zurich Classic. With its origins 86 years ago, the tournament was a regular, stroke-play PGA event until 2017 when it became a two-man team event. With 80 teams in the field, one player from each team is initially chosen via the Tour priority rankings. That player can choose any partner who is also a PGA Tour member.
The teams will play “best ball” format during the first and third rounds while the second and fourth rounds will be “alternate shot” format. The top 33 teams (and ties) will make it through the cut-line after Friday’s round. The PGA Tour further describes the format in more detail:
For Foursomes play, players will rotate tee shots. One player will hit the tee shots on all the odd-numbered holes, and the other will hit the tee shot on even-numbered holes. Example: Player A and Player B are partners. On the first hole, Player A tees off; Player B plays the second shot; Player A plays the third shot; and so on until the ball is holed. The total strokes taken will result in the team’s score for that hole.
For Four-Ball play, the players on each team will each play his own ball throughout the entirety of the round, with the best score on each hole recorded. Example: On the first hole, both golfers on each team tee off. Player A pars the hole and Player B birdies it. The team will be credited with a birdie.
The winners earn 500 FedEx Cup points and two-year exemptions, but no world ranking points are awarded, which takes away some pressure to make the cut. Both winners will earn invitations to the Sentry Tournament of Champions, THE PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship.
It’s a unique competition and provides a way for players to relax after some strenuous past events such as the Masters, and before others like the upcoming PGA Championship. The format typically makes for interesting teams, from best friends to countrymen to random pairings. The New Orleans food and culture also add to the “pull” of this event and why there are typically many high-ranked players in attendance each year.
The Field
This year’s tournament appears to have a smaller number of upper-tier players thanks to the recent consecutive designated events. There remain some world-class players teaming up including defending champions Davis Riley and Nick Hardy, 2022 champions Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, and Irish countrymen, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry.
With Max Homa skipping this year’s event, Collin Morikawa is with Kurt Kitayama. Other interesting higher-ranked pairings include TPC Louisiana stalwart, Billy Horschel with fellow University of Florida alum Tyson Alexander, Tom Hoge and Maverick McNealy, Sahith Theegala and Will Zalatoris, twins Nicolai and Rasmus Hojgaard, and a pair of all-Canadian duos in Corey Conners and Taylor Pendrith, and Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin. After these groups and a smaller second tier, the talent level of the teams declines quickly.
Past Winners/Odds
Betting Thoughts
Other than being a completely different format this week, another big narrative at the Zurich Classic is how top-heavy the top few teams are at this event. Cantlay and Schauffele stand alone at the top. Fortunately, I was able to jump on them at +500 to win when the odds first dropped before they were knocked down just minutes later. Top-10 players in the world and best friends, their chemistry is undeniable, and they already won here two years ago and finished fourth last year. Certainly, the team of McIlroy and Lowry can knock them off, but the American Ryder Cup teammates lead by a sizeable margin in almost every major category that matters at TPC Louisiana, including experience at this course. Sahith Theegala and Will Zalatoris, both top-30 in the world, also combine forces and present a formidable duo.
Once past those first three teams, there is a slightly larger second tier that should have a great chance to finish inside the top 20. Two of my favorites are Tom Hoge and Maverick McNealy and Canadiens, Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor. Defending champions, Davis Riley and Nick Hardy have both been struggling with their recent form, but partnering again this week could rekindle something from last year.
As far as the metrics that matter at TPC Louisiana, par 5 scoring will be paramount this week. Each of the par-5s rates as a great birdie opportunity with at least three of them easily reachable in two shots. The par-4s are on both ends of the length spectrum. Four of them measure over 475 yards while five measure less than 405 yards, including the driveable 16th hole. Each of the four par-3s measures over 200 yards and they represent three of the six toughest holes on the course.
As is typical, Dye created a “thinking man’s course” that demands precision around the water hazards and bunkers. Many holes, such as the par-4 16th present a risk/reward option. It challenges players to how much they are willing to risk to have a better scoring opportunity. It’s a very scoreable course as evidenced by last year’s record winning score, along with each of the prior four winning pairs reaching 20-under or better.
Gaining strokes on approach is the most important metric this week. Before the format change to the team event, Strokes Gained Approach and Greens in Regulation were important for success here as seven of the 11 winners ranked inside the top 10 for GIR%. TPC Louisiana regularly ranked inside the top 10 easiest approach courses on Tour. Including the four par 3s that are each between 200-225 yards, over 30% of approach shots will come from over 200 yards making quality long iron play paramount to success. In true Pete Dye fashion, the greens are tiered and sloping, putting a premium on a precise approach game. The importance of this aspect will be multiplied during the best-ball format in the first and third rounds as each team will have two approach chances into each green.
Players can get away with shaky around-the-green play here as it consistently ranked among the easiest short-game courses on the PGA Tour. Six of the last seven winners before 2017 ranked inside the top 10 for putting average, and each of the last four gained at least 4.2 strokes putting. When Rose won he also ranked first in putting average for the week. With this event being somewhat of a putting contest, it is imperative to have at least one quality putter on each team.
To summarize, SG: Approach, Putting, Par 5 scoring, and Proximity from 200+ yards, along with the always important Birdie or Better % in a team event, are the most important stats to target for this week’s Zurich Classic.
Weather Forecast – Avondale, LA
Zurich Classic – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele +500 (3u) – DraftKings
Finishing Position Picks
Top 5
- Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele +110 (1.1u) – DraftKings
Top 10
- Sahith Theegala/Will Zalatoris +120 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 20
- Corey Conners/Taylor Pendrith +100 (1u) – DraftKings
- Nick Taylor/Adam Hadwin +105 (1.3u) – MGM
- Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +125 (1.1u) – Rivers
- Taylor Moore/Matthew NeSmith +163 (1u) – Rivers
- Davis Riley/Nick Hardy +180 (1u) – MGM
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images