The PGA Tour heads southeast a couple of hours down the road toward the Atlantic coast for its traditional post-Masters event, the RBC Heritage. Always one of the most beloved events by players, in past years it has presented more of a relaxed vibe compared to the pressure cooker that is the Masters. For a second consecutive year, however, the pressure will be taken up a notch as one of the best fields ever gathered here will participate in one of the Tour’s “Signature” events.
Situated at the Sea Pines Resort on the southwest corner of Hilton Head Island, Harbour Town Golf Links has hosted the annual RBC Heritage on the PGA Tour held each April following the Masters tournament. From the pervasive palmetto trees and Spanish moss-draped oaks to the beautiful island scenery that Hilton Head provides, Sea Pines is one of the most popular golf resorts in the nation.
With tight fairways, numerous doglegs, and sharp angles, it presents a stark contrast for players coming over from Augusta National and its broad wide-open expanses. Harbour Town is a course where finesse and shot-making are prioritized over length and power. Few other courses on Tour require such a premium on accuracy off the tee and precise iron shots into minuscule greens. The list of past winners and contenders is filled with elite wedge players with stellar short games: Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson, Jim Furyk, Shane Lowry, Matt Kuchar, Luke Donald, J.T. Poston.
The Field
Another elite field will assemble this week in Hilton Head. Every eligible player inside the OWGR top 30 except for Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland will be in attendance. It will be another limited-field, no-cut event, smaller than even the Masters with only 68 players scheduled to compete. Coming off his second win at Augusta National, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is tentatively still listed in the field even with his wife expecting their first child in the next two weeks. Sam Burns is another who could withdraw at any moment as his wife is due within days.
Most elite golfers rarely play the week after a major. But with $20 million on the line, including a $3.6 million share to the winner, along with PIP (Player Impact Program) requirements, it’s back to the grind with no time to decompress from the tension of last week’s Masters. The last three winners of this event, Fitzpatrick, Spieth, and Stewart Cink each participated in the Masters the week before. Whether it’s Scheffler coming off a second Green Jacket or Max Homa and Collin Morikawa, who both faltered down the stretch on Sunday, it will be fascinating to see how the big names respond after last week.
Some of the elite players in the field have very little course history at Harbour Town. Top-10 players Scheffler, Homa, Rory McIlroy, and Ludvig Aberg have a combined four starts here. While he hasn’t won here, Patrick Cantlay has the best course history with finishes of 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 7th, and 3rd again at Harbour Town since 2017.
Past Winners/Odds
Betting Thoughts
Similar to last year’s RBC Heritage, we have a Signature event with a loaded field the week directly after the Masters. Everyone in the golf world can usually relax post-Augusta and ease into the Harbour Town beach vibes, but not this week. This field is loaded once again, and because of the style of the course, any type of player can come out on top.
Along with it being post-Masters, it is a unique week strategy-wise because off the tee (OTT) and distance mean little thanks to players taking less than driver on a majority of the holes. And who are typically the best players OTT? Usually the elite tier. So the fact that players will all be hitting to the same spots on the fairway, along with the fact that it is one of the easiest courses around the green, turns this week into an approach plus putting week with perhaps the strongest emphasis all year on approach play.
As mentioned, Harbour Town is a course where finesse and shot-making are prioritized over length and power. Distance is pretty much irrelevant. This takes away one of the advantages of top-tier players such as Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, who have elite power and length. The course should level the playing field and mitigate any distinct advantage from bombers.
Evidence of this is the surprise longshot winners over the years who are shorter more positional hitters – Satoshi Kodaira, CT Pan, Wesley Bryan, Webb Simpson. While the field is much stronger this week than in those years, it is a potential reason to fade the very top of the board for most bets this week. Patrick Cantlay is a huge target for me this week. He is perhaps the biggest “course horse” at Harbour Town with finishes of 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 3rd again since 2017.
Even driving accuracy is unique here. Players have commented on their ball sitting in the fairway yet having tree branches still hanging down in front of them. 2021’s winner, Stewart Cink, ranked 57th in Fairways Gained. SG: OTT has one of the lowest weights in my final model as there will be for the entire year. It’s not as much about finding the fairway as it is hitting your tee shot to the proper spot on the fairway to give yourself the best angle to the green on approach. Good Drive % is a key stat this week and shows player success in getting the ball onto the greens with their approach shot even if they miss the fairway.
To put it simply, this week is target-to-target golf. With the second smallest greens on Tour, it will come down to approach play, scrambling and who can get hot with the putter So ball-strikers and players consistent around the greens should be the focus for the RBC Heritage.
Another interesting angle is how players perform the week directly after playing in a major. I did some research and compiled the performances of all 45 golfers who making the turnaround and playing at Harbour Town this week. Many elite names are at the top, including Scheffler, Brian Harman, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, and Tony Finau. Emiliano Grillo is a lower-tier player that stands out. In his last four starts the week after a major (three of which came after missed cuts which he just experienced last week at the Masters), Grillo has gained an average of 2.63 strokes per round and has finishes of 10th, 15th, 1st, and 2nd.
Another focus for me this week will be analyzing past performance on other courses comparable to Harbour Town. These would be courses like Colonial, Sedgefield, and Pebble Beach – layouts that are shorter and positional in nature that don’t require drivers or distance off-the-tee. And finally, as with all coastal courses, the wind looks like it will have an effect on play throughout. In the model, I have included the rankings for Strokes Gained on coastal courses.
Most Important Stats For Success at Harbour Town Golf Links
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Good Drive %
- Proximity 150-200 yds
- SG: ARG
- SG: Comp Courses
- Scrambling
- Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF in Rabbit Hole)
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Total – Less Than Driver Courses
- Bogey Avoidance
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Region: Southeast
- Course Type: Coastal
- Scoring Conditions: Average/Difficult
- Course Length: Short
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Event Type: No Cut
- Field Size: Small Field
- Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
- Green Size: Small
- Rough Length: Short
- Architect: Pete Dye
- Gain OTT: Very Difficult
- OTT Club Type: Less Than Driver
- Missed Fwy Penalty: Low
- Gain APP: Very Difficult
- GIR Accuracy: Low
- Gain ARG: Very Easy
- Gain Putting Inside 15 ft: Difficult
Weather Forecast – Hilton Head Island, South Carolina
RBC Heritage – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
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*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Ludvig Aberg +1400 (1.7u) – BetMGM
- Patrick Cantlay +2000 (1.2u) – FanDuel
- Brian Harman +5000 (0.48u) – BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Patrick Cantlay +175 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 20 – all DraftKings
- Matt Fitzpatrick -110 (1.1u)
- Cameron Young +105 (1u)
- Wyndham Clark +115 (1u)
- Russell Henley +115 (1u)
- Brian Harman +150 (1u)
Top 30
- Cam Davis +110 (1u) – BetRivers
- Emiliano Grillo +150 (1u) – BetRivers
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images