With the best players in the world finally uniting again on the immaculate grounds of Augusta National Golf Club, “A Tradition Unlike Any Other” has arrived for the 88th edition of The Masters. Played at one of the most private golf clubs in the world, Augusta National is also the most recognizable golf course anywhere. Built at the height of the Great Depression on the grounds of one of the Southeast’s most popular plant nurseries, each hole on the course is named after the tree or flower associated with it.
Whether it’s driving down “Magnolia Lane”, surviving “Amen Corner”, the blooming azaleas and dogwoods, or wearing the “Green Jacket”, so many words and phrases have become legendary over the years thanks to the tradition of this hallowed ground. Whether in person or watching from afar, the sensory overload and the absolute beauty of the course are something to behold.
Featuring generous fairways, demanding approach shots, and severely sloped lightning-fast green complexes, Augusta National is a course that will test every club in the bag and each player’s fortitude. Remarked three-time top-10 finisher Xander Schauffele, “You are asked to hit shots this week that you don’t hit anywhere else.” Golfers in current form, with positive experience at Augusta National, “Carry Distance” off the tee, long-iron approach accuracy, creative short-game skills, and a knack for scoring on par 5s will have an edge over competitors who are lacking those traits.
The Field
The Masters is the only major tournament played at the same course every year. Golfers competing here receive their opportunity by invitation after meeting certain qualifications. This typically leaves the field at around 90 golfers with the cut on Friday being determined by the top-50 and ties making it through to the weekend. The field sits at 89 golfers for this year’s event and is among the strongest ever assembled. Every player ranked among top-55 in the world will be present at Augusta National this week.
Golfers who have qualified for this year’s Masters include players in the top-50 of the OWGR, major winners over the last five years, PGA Tour winners over the past year, and those receiving “special invites”.
The greatest legends in the history of golf have graced these grounds over the years. Jack Nicklaus has won the most Masters events with six. Tiger Woods has won five green jackets while Arnold Palmer has been champion four times. World No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler enters as the heavy favorite to win his second Green Jacket. World No. 3 Jon Rahm will try to become the first back-to-back champion at the Masters in more than two decades. And the third favorite on the odds board, World No. 2 Rory McIlroy will once again attempt to complete the career grand slam. Tiger Woods is also in the field and might be the healthiest he has been in years.
With the best players in the world from both the PGA and LIV back together again at the same course for the first time since The Open Championship last July, excitement for this week is at a fever pitch. LIV Golf has continued to fracture the game, signing Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, and Adrian Meronk away from the PGA Tour since last year’s Masters. Overall, 13 players from LIV have qualified for the Masters including elite performers in majors like Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson, and Phil Mickelson.
Past Winners/Odds
Winner Trends
The most comprehensive list of the highest % trends for the most predictive course – Augusta National.
TAKEAWAYS
⛳️Past history matters here more than anywhere else
⛳️A longshot winner is very unlikely
⛳️Recent winning experience is significant
⛳️Current form, especially T2G is paramount
⛳️An elite putter is not required
⛳️It’s a bombers paradise – Architect Bobby Jones literally designed the course to give golfers “an unrestricted feeling of being able to swing away amid a wide swath of parkland”. He believed that good drives would be rewarded, not by staying out of penalty areas, but by “making the second shot simpler in proportion to the excellence of the first”
⛳️Feasting on the par 5s is a necessity
⛳️Tight, uneven lies “Around the Green” bring out the best short-gamers
Only one player fits 19 of the 20 trends…
Xander Schauffele
Four players fit 18 of 20 trends…
Scottie Scheffler
Jon Rahm
Hideki Matsuyama
Tony Finau
Three players fit 17 of 20 trends…
Rory McIlroy
Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young
Betting Thoughts
My betting strategy this week is straightforward. Related to the statistical and past Masters’ trends for this event, I am focusing on a particular list of attributes. Each of these makes up this week’s “Super 7” metric in the model for this event. These include distance off the tee, gaining tee-to-green with recent play, Par 5 Scoring, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, and past performance at Augusta National and in other major tournaments.
As for players participating in the Masters from the LIV Golf League – even though a few of them proved me wrong last year, most are not high on my radar from a betting perspective. With little data combined with fewer events, weaker fields, unchallenging courses, and an emphasis on team play over individual play, it is hard for me to trust that they are in any type of quality form entering such an intense tournament. Brooks Koepka, Joaquin Niemann, and Patrick Reed are the ones that I trust the most.
Distance Off the Tee
The first one is players who are long off the tee, and who especially rank high in Carry Distance. 14 of the past 15 winners ranked 47th or better for the season in Driving Distance in the year leading up to their Masters’ win.
Simply put, Augusta National is a bombers paradise. When Bobby Jones was designing Augusta National he wanted golfers to “have an unrestricted feeling of being able to swing away amid a wide swath of parkland”. When analyzing the numbers off the tee, the data most definitely bears that out. Players are free to bomb away with driver without any fear of thick rough or water hazards of any kind. Driving distance is one of the highest on Tour at 297 yards.
This year, Augusta National will stretch out to its longest distance ever at 7,555 yards. At that length, it measures as the seventh longest course in the annual Tour rotation. And with the fairway grass being mown in the direction from green to tee in the opposite direction of the hole, rollout on drives will be minimized even further. With easy-to-hit fairways and no harsh penalty from being in the minimal “second-cut” of rough, bombers have a distinct advantage. More than half of the driving holes also lack fairway bunkers. Added distance also helps on ensuring players can reach each of the par 5s in two shots by hitting longer irons into the greens instead of fairway woods.
SG: Tee-to-Green
Next on the list is recent Tee-to-Green (T2G) form. Each of the past 14 Masters winners gained a minimum total of 18 strokes gained T2G in the four events leading up to their Masters win.
Recent form is everything in golf. History has proven that golfers entering Masters week in superb form have a much better chance at success than those coming in struggling with their game. This has been exemplified in the past with a player’s Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (T2G) in the four events leading up to their Masters win. The T2G metric measures a player’s strokes gained off-the-tee, on approach, and around the green. It does not use putting as part of the equation. Putting is much more volatile with even the best putters having bad weeks, and the worst putters sometimes have great weeks. Both history and research show that being an elite ball-striker is the quickest way to the top of major championship leaderboards. Gaining strokes off-the-tee or on approach is the foundation. Combine that with the necessary touch that is needed chipping from tight lies around the treacherous Augusta National greens and it’s easy to see why T2G is so vital this week.
Here are the SG: T2G totals for the last eleven Masters winners in the four events leading up to their victory.
2023: Jon Rahm – 21.2
2022: Scottie Scheffler – 20.1
2021: Hideki Matsuyama – 18.5
2020: Dustin Johnson – 36.1
2019: Tiger Woods – 22.2
2018: Patrick Reed – 18.0
2017: Sergio Garcia – 31.4
2016: Danny Willett – 18.2
2015: Jordan Spieth – 28.6
2014: Bubba Watson – 37.9
2013: Adam Scott – 24.2
2012: Bubba Watson – 40.9
Par 5 Scoring
12 of the last 14 winners ranked inside the top 40 for the season in Par 5 Scoring in the year leading up to their Masters win. With it being so important for players to be aggressive and attack the par-5s, it will be paramount for players to score on those holes well above the field average. Another advantage of a longer distance off the tee is the ability to take shorter, more lofted irons into the firm, bouncy greens.
The data supporting its importance is quite staggering. Since 2009, Par 5 scoring at the Masters accounts for 72% of the winners’ total output. For the last three winners – Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Hideki Matsuyama – 91% of their scoring was on the par 5s! In the chart below, you can see how each of the champions since 2009 has fared on the par 5s compared to their par 3/4 scoring.
SG: Approach
It has been said that Augusta National is one of the few courses that present two challenges on almost every hole. The first is a challenge to reach the green on approach and the second is a challenge to solve the tricky undulating contours after reaching the green. While length is important, this is a second-shot course. With so many approach shots being hit from uneven lies combined with firm sloping greens, ball-striking is paramount for success. The course ranks as the sixth-toughest course to gain shots on approach. Over the past nine Masters, the winner has finished 6th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 5th, 4th, and 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week.
As previously mentioned, while being in a position to approach the tough hole locations from the proper angle is important, it is only half the battle. When greens as firm as the ones at Augusta come into play, even great approaches are often unrewarded as balls will bounce far from the hole or roll off the green entirely. Early reports have the course as firm as it’s been in the last five years. That will depend on how much of a deluge of rain falls on Thursday along with how quickly the SubAir system can get the greens dried out to their preferred firm condition.
Elite iron players such as Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele who have amazing distance control and can get the ball to spin and stop have a distinct advantage. But with 76% of approach shots coming from the 150+ yard range, trying to control trajectory, location, and spin with longer clubs is not an easy task, even for the elite players. Also related to the firm greens is that players with higher ball flights and those who are approaching from shorter distances with more lofted clubs have an edge as well. It’s basic physics. Balls landing from a higher trajectory will stop closer to their intended location than those on a lower plane angle.
And here’s another thing to consider which makes the approach game even more tricky. Most of the greens are either elevated or protected by bunkers or water on the short side. This naturally forces players to hit more conservative shots that carry onto the back sections of the greens well past the trouble areas. The problem with this is that most of the greens slope from front to back. If golfers can’t spin the ball back toward the hole they will be faced with long downhill putts. This is also why playing experience and course history matter so much at Augusta. The Jordan Spieths and Brooks Koepkas and Adam Scotts of the field – who have built up a great deal of knowledge here – know exactly where they can and can’t miss on each hole.
Around the Green Play
10 of the last 11 winners had gained at least 0.25 strokes Around the Green in the 16 rounds before their Masters win. Augusta National features some of the toughest greens to hold on approach. This leads to some of the tightest lies around the green that players will face all year. Whether chipping from the short grass to get into birdie position on a par 5 or simply scrambling to save par, Augusta National places more of a premium on short-game technique and skill than any other course. Hitting cleanly under the ball while attempting to control where it goes on these treacherous greens puts extra pressure on golfers who are oftentimes just trying to survive the hole.
One of the best short-game players on Tour, Jason Day, gave a good example of the touch needed here. “Around the greens, you definitely have to have that touch. I always say you have to hit it hard enough but soft enough around here. If you get that, then you understand what it means to chip around Augusta. You could be hitting a chip shot and you might hit the same chip shot, one with less spin and one with more spin, and they could be 20, 30 feet apart, but you could hit it on the same line. So you have to be precise here.”
Here are the SG: Around the Green averages per round from the last 11 winners at Augusta National in the 16 rounds leading into the Masters tournament.
2023: Jon Rahm – 0.21
2022: Scottie Scheffler – 0.43
2021: Hideki Matsuyama – 0.66
2020: Dustin Johnson – 0.33
2019: Tiger Woods – 0.53
2018: Patrick Reed – 0.56
2017: Sergio Garcia – 0.38
2016: Danny Willett – 0.71
2015: Jordan Spieth – 0.63
2014: Bubba Watson – 0.26
2013: Adam Scott – 0.42
Augusta National Course History/Past Major Performance
Along with course experience at Augusta National being more important than at any other course, players constantly speak about the learning curve that is necessary to have success here. Whether it’s knowing where to miss below the hole on a particular approach shot or having a knowledge bank in your mind of how putts break on certain holes, the more repetitions players gain, the better their chances are to win. As 2018 winner Patrick Reed said, “It truly is a course knowledge golf course. You need to know where to put the ball on certain pins and if you miss you need to miss it in certain spots because there’s some areas around here that it’s impossible, unless you make a 15‑, 18‑footer.”
No Masters debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. To extend the value of playing experience at Augusta even further, 20 of the last 25 winners had played in at least three previous Masters before their win. Per that same Data Golf study, a player experiences significant jumps in performance in their 3rd, 7th, and 9th Masters. One peaks at the Masters in their 9th appearance and continues to enjoy sustained success up through their 13th appearance. The other trends in this group equate to some level of previous success on this course, whether simply making the cut or having successful finishes in prior years.
As you will see in the model, I’m targeting players who have played well in strong fields and on difficult scoring courses. Experience winning tournaments, along with the pressure and everything that goes into those occurrences, is a definite pre-requisite for becoming a Masters champion. And not only that but being in contention in a recent major event also seems to add to a player’s confidence in having success in future “big-stage” events. In a pressure-packed moment as critical as contending during “Sunday at the Masters”, and being able to draw from those past lessons and experiences, is an edge that can push a player over the top to a green jacket celebration.
Finally, if the windy forecast holds for the weekend, I will look at players who have had past success in those conditions. Players like Jason Day, Justin Thomas, and Tommy Fleetwood have each proven strong in gusty winds and poor weather conditions.
Most Important Stats For Success at Augusta National
- SG: APP 150+ yds
- Course History/Majors History
- Driving Distance (Carry Distance)
- SG: T2G L24 rds
- Par-5 Scoring
- 3-Putt Avoidance/Approach Putt Performance
- Scrambling
- SG: ARG
- Par-4 Scoring: Tough Courses
- Bogey Avoidance
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Scoring Conditions: Very Difficult
- Course Length: Very Long
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Event Type: Major
- Field Size: Small Field
- Greens Surface: Bent
- Green Speed: Fast
- Green Firmness: Firm
- Rough Length: Short
- OTT Club: Driver Heavy
- Fairway Accuracy: Easy
- Gain APP: Very Difficult
- Par 4 Scoring: Difficult
- Gain ARG: Very Difficult
- Scrambling Short Grass: Difficult
- Gain Putting: Very Difficult
- 3-Putt AVD: Difficult
Weather Forecast – Augusta, Georgia
The Masters – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Rory McIlroy +1200 (1.95u) – ESPN
- Hideki Matsuyama +2500 (0.96u) – DraftKings
- Will Zalatoris +4500 (0.52u) – DraftKings
- Russell Henley +11000 (0.21u) – FanDuel
- Keegan Bradley +20000 (0.12u) – FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 5
- Scottie Scheffler +105 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 10
- Rory McIlroy +110 (1u) – DraftKings
- Xander Schauffele +140 (1u) – BetMGM
- Hideki Matsuyama +180 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 20 – all DraftKings
- Matt Fitzpatrick +120 (1u)
- Will Zalatoris +125 (1u)
- Tony Finau +130 (1u)
Top 30
- Russell Henley -120 (1.2u) – FanDuel
- S.W. Kim -115 (1.2u) – FanDuel
- Corey Conners -110 (1.1u) – DraftKings
Top 40
- Keegan Bradley +100 (1u) – BetMGM
- Chris Kirk +120 (1u) – FanDuel
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images