2024 Texas Children's Houston Open – Betting Preview

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With the Florida Swing concluded, and only two weeks before the Masters, the PGA Tour heads west to Memorial Park Golf Course and the Houston Open. One of the country’s best public, municipal courses, Memorial Park is a long par 70 that measures 7,412 yards and can trace its origins back to 1912.

The course features five par 3s and three par 5s. There are only 21 bunkers on the entire course and only four water danger holes. The defense of the course is the unique green complexes that feature plenty of undulations and short-grass runoffs with false fronts. “Nothing is hidden, it’s all out in front of you. But these green complexes can be treacherous if they don’t hit their target,” said course superintendent, Parker Henry. Playing almost an entire stroke over par after its first three editions, Memorial Park emphasizes the importance of a well-rounded game.

Due to the tournament moving from its fall slot (where it has been held since 2020) to the spring for this year’s event, the agronomy is completely different. What was once a wall-to-wall bermudagrass course is now overseeded with Poa trivialis on the greens. But the biggest change is switching from penal 2.5″ Bermuda rough to the much easier and shorter 1.25″ ryegrass rough.

This is important because what was once one of the toughest non-major courses on Tour appears to be much easier off the tee thanks to this switch in turf necessitated by the tournament’s seasonal change. Players can take more aggressive shots coming out of the rough than in years past without having to worry about “fliers” or bad lies from difficult Bermuda rough. Expect the average score this year to be around a full stroke easier than the +0.80 per round from the first three events here.

The Field

Headlining the 144-player field are six of the top-30 ranked players in the world led by No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Houston resident Sahith Theegala, Will Zalatoris and Jason Day. Tony Finau also returns to defend his 2022 title. Scheffler and Clark have been two of the hottest golfers on the planet and have finished 1-2 in each of the last two Signature events. A native Texan, Scheffler has finished ninth and second here in the last two events and also owns the course record with a 62 in 2021.

There is also a decent mid-tier group of golfers in attendance this week including Si Woo Kim, Jake Knapp, Kurt Kitayama, Tom Hoge, Cameron Davis, and Luke List. The first two Houston Open champions at Memorial Park, Carlos Ortiz and Jason Kokrak will be absent this week as each is on the LIV Tour. There is a 36-hole cut on Friday with the top-65 and ties making it through to the weekend to compete for the $9.1 million purse.

Betting Strategy

With all the changes at Memorial Park for this year’s Houston Open, I am going much lighter this week with the betting card. Other than a couple of early outrights, I am going to explore the live betting market this week after getting more of an idea on how the course will play.

Memorial Park has averaged 0.80 strokes over par and played as the 4th toughest non-major course on Tour in its first three editions. With it predicted to pay much easier this year, analyzing past performance on other difficult courses is much less relevant. Many players who have seen the course this week have said there is practically no rough and that it will play like a “bombers paradise.” Driving distance off the tee is one of my highest weighted metrics this week.

The second major area that I emphasized in the model this week that will be key to success is short-game performance around the greens. Last year, 27% of strokes gained at Memorial Park came from around the greens. This is the highest rate on Tour and speaks to the importance of having a quality short game to contend here.

Even with the lack of unpredictable Bermuda rough most of the greens fall off around the edges to short-grass runoff areas which can make life quite difficult for even the best players when missing the putting surface. Not only that, but the greens are also sloped and very fast. Instead of the deeper rough that most courses have, both architect Tom Doak and player consultant Brooks Koepka wanted tight, sloping uphill lies that would test players’ ability to demonstrate touch with their chipping. And with so many players missing greens, a poor short game will be very difficult to hide.

As Scottie Scheffler said about the difficulty in saving par, “Around the greens out here is very, very difficult to get up and down, and you can get into some spots where you start playing ping pong across these greens, it’s brutal.”

Another key for me this week is recent approach play combined with current form since the start of the calendar year. Some of the best players in that area include Will Zalatoris, Tom Hoge, Keith Mitchell, Joel Dahmen and obviously the two studs on top of the odds board, Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark.

Most Important Stats For Success at Memorial Park

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Scrambling (Short Grass)
Bogey Avoidance
Driving Distance
Good Drive %
Birdie or Better %
SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Overall)
Proximity 200+ yards
3-Putt AVD
SG: Total on Difficult Scoring courses

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Texas
Comp Courses: GC of Houston, Renaissance Club, Congaree, Quail Hollow, Augusta National, TPC Scottsdale, Riviera, Southern Hills, Bay Hill
Scoring Conditions: Difficult
Course Length: Very Long
Field Strength: Weak
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
Green Size: Large
Rough Length: Short
OTT Club: Driver Heavy
Gain APP: Difficult
Gain ARG: Difficult
Scrambling Short Grass: Difficult
3-Putt AVD: Difficult

Weather Forecast – Houston, Texas

Houston Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.