With the conclusion of the Florida Swing and just two weeks remaining until the Masters, the PGA Tour now shifts its focus to the west for the Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course. This renowned public and municipal course, dating back to 1912, spans 7,412 yards with a par of 70. Six of the OWGR’s top 30 are in the field, including course record holder Scottie Scheffler. It’s once again a “to Scottie, or not to Scottie” week.
Noteworthy for its five par 3s and three par 5s, the course features a modest 21 bunkers and only four water hazards, all changes made during the 2019 Brooks Koepka-led redesign. Its defense lies in the distinctive green complexes characterized by undulating surfaces and short-grass runoffs with false fronts. According to course superintendent Parker Henry, while everything is visible, the green complexes can be challenging if not approached accurately.
The course has historically played over par, emphasizing the need for a well-rounded game. This year, the tournament’s move from fall to spring has significantly changed the course’s agronomy. The once bermudagrass-covered course now showcases Poa trivialis on the greens. Additionally, the rough has transitioned from penal 2.5″ Bermuda to a more manageable 1.25″ ryegrass. This shift in turf is crucial, as it is expected to make tee shots much more forgiving compared to previous years. With the reduced likelihood of “fliers” or difficult lies from Bermuda rough, players can adopt a more aggressive approach. Consequently, it is anticipated that this year’s average score will be approximately a full stroke easier than the previous three events, which averaged a score of +0.80 per round. This is a grip-it-and-rip-it course off the tee, and the penalty for missing the fairway should be severely reduced.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Memorial Park:
Memorial Park Golf Course is a long Par 70 that sits at 7,412 yards. Not only is it the fourth-longest course in the annual Tour rotation, but it has also played as the sixth-toughest annual course, with golfers averaging 0.80 strokes over par over the past two years. It initially appears like a bomber’s paradise, but the past two years have shown that it is a course that also demands accuracy, touch around the greens, and patience.
Along with a good mix of doglegs and straight holes, Memorial Park features a variety of holes with varying distances. Lengthy holes, however, are a common theme. Three of the five par 3s are over 200 yards, with eight par 4s playing over 440 yards. The course shows its teeth, with five of those playing over 490 yards and averaging a bogey or worse rate of 28.9%. Even the par 5s are challenging, which includes the 576-yard 16th hole, which only has a Birdie or Better rate of 22%.
Every single approach stat at Memorial Park is more difficult than the Tour average. The biggest challenge is getting your second shot to settle on the correct quadrant of these large greens. The firm undulations that slope off near the edges make it very difficult to get makeable birdie putts if you hit the wrong sector of the green. In some cases, missing the green on the correct side might be better than hitting the green but having to putt from 40 feet across multiple breaks and slopes.
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There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Houston Open Betting Targets
Scottie Scheffler
I don’t know what to do with this week’s betting board with this current version of Scottie Scheffler in the field. On top of being the best golfer in the world and winning his past two starts, the Texas grad owns the course record here at Memorial Park after firing a second-round 62 back in November of 2021. He ranks inside the top 10 in every metric that I’m prioritizing this week, so from a modeling perspective, he’s head and shoulders above everyone in this week’s field.
Now, the price. It’s tough to stomach 3/1 or shorter in a 144-man field, but here we are. These are peak-Tiger prices, but we’re sort of dealing with peak-Tiger from a ball-striking standpoint, and suddenly he’s making putts. Scheffler has gained strokes putting in six of his past eight rounds and ranks 25th in this week’s field in strokes gained putting over that same time frame. A small sample, yes, but it comes with an equipment change, which makes it feel different.
To Win: 3/1 ESPNBet
Wyndham Clark
I don’t think I’m chasing the outright market outside of Scheffler this week, but this course profiles as a perfect fit for the second-hottest player on Tour, Wyndham Clark.
Clark ranks second in this week’s field in SG: T2G in 2024 and driving distance, and like Scheffler, his scrambling ability is one of his underrated skills, and it matters a ton this week. He won last year’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club due to his insane ability to get up and down from the shaved runoffs surrounding the greens, and the layout is similar here at Memorial Park. As Ron highlighted in his preview, 27% of strokes gained at Memorial Park came from around the greens last year. Perhaps you can find a decent price on Clark in a “without Scheffler” market, and I’d be surprised if he’s not in the mix here again this week.
Top 10: +150 DraftKings
Will Zalatoris
Will Zalatoris plays his best golf on long, difficult courses, and while Memorial Park might play a tad easier than normal with the switch to spring versus the fall, it’s still unlikely to be a 25-under birdie fest.
Zalatoris, another Texas native, has hit the ground running in his return from a back injury that sapped most of his 2023 season. Back-to-back T4 or better finishes preceded his surprising missed cut at The PLAYERS, but he ranks seventh in this week’s field in SG: T2G in 2024 and is a sneaky-good lag putter and always has been despite his well-documented putting woes, though the move to the long broomstick putter is serving him well to date. He’s also one of the Tour’s leaders in Apex Height, which is something I’m looking at this week since higher ball flight will help when trying to hold approach shots onto these firm and fast poa trivialis greens.
Top 20: +100 BetRivers
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