2024 THE PLAYERS Championship – Betting Preview

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On the heels of Scottie Scheffler’s return to the winner’s circle at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the stage is set for the PGA Tour’s marquee event as the 2024 edition of THE PLAYERS Championship kicks off this week at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The most iconic Pete Dye creation, TPC Sawgrass is a hazard-filled, positional, Florida-style test that hosts what many consider the most competitive and thrilling tournament of the year.

While packed with talent again this year and still holding onto the mantra of “the best field in golf”, with a decent number of the world’s best competing on the rival LIV Tour, we can safely discard the title of THE PLAYERS Championship being golf’s “fifth major”. Even so, it remains one of the most important events on the calendar. 2019 champion Rory McIlroy summed up what the tournament means by saying, “I wouldn’t consider my career complete if I hadn’t won a Players Championship.”

Visually, TPC Sawgrass is one of the most perfectly manicured courses in the world. From the lush rough to the elaborately designed white sand bunkers to the 16 holes framed with water to the lightning-fast tiered greens, players will face challenges on every hole. Few other courses can match its risk/reward brilliance. Tee shots on the angled fairways are well-designed and encourage golfers to hit toward the trouble for the least obstructed approach shots into the demanding greens.

It’s a course where any type of player can win. Pretenders are quickly weeded out. Toss in some typically windy March conditions. Errors get compounded in a hurry. Players who are strong mentally with an all-around game and who are entering with sharp form typically have the best chance of surviving the torture chamber. It sounds cliche, but here at Sawgrass, the best overall player for the week raises the trophy on Sunday.

The Field

Led by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, 47 of the top 50 on the Official World Golf Ranking will be in attendance at TPC Sawgrass. Thanks to continuing defections to the LIV Tour, the field is even more watered down this year. With the likes of Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Joaquin Niemann, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, and 2022 champion Cameron Smith banished from this event, it opens up opportunities for many of the “rank and file” members as 47 players will make either their first or second start at this year’s PLAYERS Championship.

While two-time champion Tiger Woods disappointed many by not entering the field this year, every single eligible PGA Tour golfer in the top-100 in the world will be in attendance this week. Past champions in the field include Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, and Adam Scott.

The field contains a full 144 golfers this week with the top 65 and ties making it through the 36-hole cutline to play the weekend. The winner receives 750 FedExCup points and a $4.5 million first-place check from a $25 million purse.

Past Winners/Odds

Winning Trends

Betting Strategy

There are several unique “Rabbit Hole” metrics and filters included in the model for this week’s PLAYERS Championship including “SG: Strong Fields/Difficult Courses”, “SG: Ball-Striking on High Water Danger Courses” and “SG: OTT on Less than Driver Courses.”

With all the volatility that surrounds TPC Sawgrass, I went a little lighter on finish position bets. I jumped on Scottie Scheffler to win at +800 early on Sunday before the odds dropped to +550 soon thereafter. No golfer has ever gone back-to-back in the 50-year history of THE PLAYERS. But Scheffler, as we all know, is historically elite. I also got great numbers on Russell Henley (+7500) and 2023 Open Championship winner, Brian Harman (+15000). Due to the unpredictability of the course, I would encourage everyone not to go all in on any one player.

A couple of things stand out in the “Winning Trends” for this event. First, past experience at TPC Sawgrass is huge. Players who have gone through the grind of playing this Pete Dye masterpiece, who have experienced both success and failure, have an advantage over golfers with less course history. Notice that I did not mention “positive” course history. With the event moving to March back in 2019, I am actually throwing those results out the window in the model for this week. It is not enough sample size, and with the volatility of this course, we have just as many missed cuts as Top-10 finishes from the best players in the world here.

The second important trend that stands out is that players need to be in quality current form coming into this event. I will especially be targeting players who have been positive with their SG: Approach play over the past 12 rounds.

Three unique splits are used in the model this week. They are Strokes Gained performance on courses with strong fields and on difficult scoring courses, performance on less than driver courses, and strokes gained on courses with high water danger. With so much trouble at every turn, Bogey and Double Bogey avoidance is another stat with added weight this week. Players must keep big numbers off of their scorecards.

Around the green play and scrambling is also huge this week. Every player will end up needing to scramble for par or bogey. Players who can limit the damage and get up and down to save strokes are preferred.

With over a 39% Birdie or Better rate on the Par-5s, it is essential that players shoot under par on these holes. Par-5 scoring shows up in the model on the Scoring and Core 4 splits this week.

Finally, with all types of players finding success here at TPC Sawgrass, my focus will be on all-around skill players who are generally positive in their tee-to-green game each week, with an added focus on elite ball-strikers.

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Sawgrass

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Good Drive %
Bogey Avoidance
Scrambling
SG: ARG
Par 5 Scoring
SG: Putting (overall)
SG: OTT (Difficult OTT/Less than Driver Courses)
Birdie or Better%
SG: Total on Difficult Course/Strong Fields

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Florida
Scoring Conditions: Difficult
Field Strength: Very Strong
Field Size: Full Field
Bunker #: High
Water Danger: High
Greens: Poa Trivialis
Green Speed: Fast
Rough Surface: Rye
Rough Length: Long
Architect: Pete Dye
Gain OTT: Very Difficult
OTT Club: Less then Driver
Missed Fwy Penalty: High
Rough Penalty: High
Gain APP: Very Difficult
Par 4 Scoring: Difficult
Gain ARG: Difficult
Gain Putting >15 feet: Difficult

Weather Forecast – Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

THE PLAYERS Championship – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.